Research On The Impact Of Green Credit Policy On China’s Carbon Emissions Based On CGE Model

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by human society.In recent years,the pressure of global climate change has been increasing,and extreme weather and climate events have occurred frequently.Sustainable development of society and the environment has become an important task on a global scale,and green has gradually become a bright background for high-quality economic and social development.At present,China is in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization,and the rapid economic growth has driven a rapid increase in energy consumption demand and a continuous increase in carbon dioxide emissions.Therefore,promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction strategies and building a green and low-carbon carbon cycle development economic system are crucial to solving the ecological problems of resources and environment in China.As the core content of green finance policy,green credit policy is a kind of financial support policy adopted by financial institutions to promote sustainable development,and also an important carrier to achieve the dual carbon goals and build a green low-carbon energy system.This paper takes green credit policy as an influencing factor,and explores the carbon emission reduction effect and other effects of green credit policy by establishing a computable general equilibrium theory(CGE)model.Firstly,it defines the concepts of green finance,green credit policy,carbon emissions and CGE model,and takes credit rationing theory,externality theory,sustainable development theory and corporate social responsibility theory as the theoretical basis;Secondly,the current development status of green credit policies and carbon emissions was reviewed,and the mechanism of green credit policies on carbon emissions was discussed from three aspects: financing constraint mechanism,fund guidance mechanism,and signal transmission mechanism;On the basis of the above,a CGE model including a financial module was constructed.Based on the 2018 input-output table and the national macro and micro social accounting matrix(SAM table)compiled with other data,enterprises were divided into high emission enterprises and other enterprises,and corresponding industry divisions were conducted to explore the carbon emission reduction and output effects of green credit policies by implementing punitive direct and indirect financing rates for high emission enterprises Resource allocation effects,changes in corporate financing scale,and their impact on the macroeconomic situation.The research results indicate that:(1)green credit policies have significant carbon reduction effects,but have had a certain impact on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP,consumption,and social welfare,as well as industry output;(2)The resource allocation effect brought about by green credit policy is not significant;(3)The implementation of green credit policies has led to a reduction in the financing scale of high emission enterprises,but the negative impact of green credit policies through indirect financing interest rates on financing scale will be alleviated by direct financing by enterprises;(4)The implementation of green credit policy has a marginal utility.When the indirect financing interest rate is set to 10.75%,all other industries except the construction industry and the tertiary industry achieve the optimal emission reduction effect.When the indirect financing interest rate is set to 11.75%,the construction industry will produce carbon emission reduction effect.When the direct financing interest rate is set at 10.35%,the carbon emission reduction effect of other industries except for the construction industry and the tertiary industry is the best;(5)The effect of green credit policies using punitive indirect financing rates as a measure is better than that using punitive direct financing rates as a measure.From this,it can be seen that green credit policies are effective measures to achieve carbon emission reduction goals.Based on this,the article proposes corresponding policy suggestions to create a strong economic driving force for achieving sustainable development and building a green and low-carbon economy.