| Natural gas has become one of the important energy sources for social and environmental sustainable development in China because of its low carbon,high efficiency and safety characteristics,and its strategic position is increasingly prominent.Natural gas supply system is a complex system composed of upstream gas source,midstream pipe network and downstream consumers.In the actual natural gas market,due to the existence of various random factors,such as extreme weather,epidemic,macro policies,the supply often cannot timely respond to the peak-valley transition of demand.Therefore,the research on the decision-making of natural gas supply under random demand is of great theoretical and practical significance to realize the balance of natural gas supply and demand and the stability of natural gas supply.As a key area of air pollution prevention and control in China,The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is facing transformation and development of energy consumption and huge potential of natural gas market demand.It is a key area of natural gas resource supply protection.In view of this,this paper takes the natural gas market in The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research subject,describes the monthly distribution law of natural gas consumption in the beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on the uneven coefficient,and then quantifies the factor of random demand into the supply decision of the natural gas market by Monte Carlo simulation.The corresponding scenarios are set from the supply end,gas storage end and cost end.A hybrid complementary model(MCP)is constructed to study the optimal market decisions of the manufacturer,pipeline transport operator and gas storage operator under different scenarios.Based on the correlation analysis and model results,the following main research conclusions are drawn:(1)The beijing-Tianjin-Hebei natural gas market still takes pipeline gas source as the main supply channel: under the baseline scenario,the total annual supply of pipeline gas source is 24.724 billion m3,accounting for 79.27%.Due to random demand fluctuation characteristics,the monthly supply of each market subject will change with it under different scenarios,but there is still a law: the monthly supply load rate of domestic gas source is close to 100%,while imported LNG is mainly supplied from April to August when the import cost is low.(2)The increase of gas storage reserve constraint will lead to the increase of off-season gas storage and imported LNG supply,and the proportion of imported LNG supply under the constraint of 15% reserves will increase from 20.73% to 21.13% under the baseline scenario.(3)The total supply cost of natural gas in The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is greatly affected by the price fluctuation of imported natural gas,especially imported LNG.The increase of gas source cost increases the total supply cost of natural gas in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region by 7.57%,which is closer to the trend of imported LNG price fluctuation.On this basis,it is suggested that differentiated supply strategy should be adopted according to the monthly gas consumption peak-valley law and demand fluctuation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.At the same time,it is necessary to strengthen the connection of domestic gas source pipelines and expand gas storage reasonably,so as to further reduce the dependence on imported gas source. |
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