Research On The Optimization Of Urban Passenger Transportation Structure Based On Low-Carbon Concept

With the continuous growth of motor vehicle ownership,carbon emissions from urban transportation are increasing.In response to climate change and carbon emission reduction,China has put forward the "double carbon" goal of "striving to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060",and it is imperative for the transportation industry to achieve low carbon emissions.Therefore,more specific quantitative targets are proposed for structural emission reductions in urban passenger transportation systems.The carbon emission of urban passenger transportation system is nearly 20% of the total carbon emission of the whole urban transportation,and the unreasonable urban passenger transportation structure is an essential factor restricting the development of the whole urban system in a sustainable way.In order to improve the potency of urban passenger transportation system and reduce the total carbon emission,this paper optimizes the urban passenger transportation structure based on the low-carbon transportation quantitative requirements,and the main research contents are as follows:(1)Based on a systematic analysis of the factors affecting carbon emissions from urban passenger transportation,sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors is conducted.Considering the comprehensiveness and quantifiability of the influencing factors,the principal component analysis method is used to identify the key factors of carbon emissions in the urban passenger transportation system,calculate their scores and weights,conduct sensitivity ranking,and conduct sensitivity analysis to clarify the importance of the influencing factors on carbon emissions,providing a basis for the subsequent calculation of carbon emissions in the urban passenger transportation system.(2)The bottom-up carbon emission measurement model of IPCC based on residents’ travel decision process is constructed by combining the decision tree modeling idea.A multiple logit model is used to calculate the probability of residents’ travel decisions,and the emission factors by vehicle and fuel type are calibrated using multi-source data.The GA-SVR scenario analysis and prediction method is used to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the peak time and peak value of carbon emissions of urban passenger transportation under the baseline scenario,regulation scenario and deterioration scenario.(3)A low-carbon concept based urban passenger transportation structure optimization model is constructed,six types of urban passenger transportation modes are identified: rail transit,conventional bus,cab,private car,walking and bicycle,five objectives of transportation efficiency,external cost,transportation carbon emission,service quality and travel cost are taken as goals of optimization,total demand constraint of residents,limitation constraint of transportation land resources and achievability constraint are regarded as constraints,and a multi-objective genetic algorithm based on ideal point method is used to resolve the model.(4)Jinan passenger traffic is chosen for example verification.The model of Jinan passenger transportation structure optimization based on low-carbon concept is constructed and solved,and the optimal urban passenger transportation structure in the planning year is obtained,each optimization target is compared before and after the optimization,the direction of passenger transportation structure adjustment is clarified,and the emission reduction and carbon reduction measures for the urban passenger transportation system are proposed.The results indicate that after optimization,the proportion of private cars decreased by 18.09% and the proportion of ground buses increased by 8.06%,the proportion of cabs decreased by 41.18%,the proportion of rail transportation increased by 396.03%,the proportion of walking decreased by 37.69%,and the proportion of bicycles decreased by 29.27%.