Spatial And Temporal Variation Of LUCC In The Yellow River Basin (Shaanxi Section) Based On The PLUS Model

The Yellow River is China’s "Mother River",an ecological corridor connecting the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Loess Plateau and North China Plain,playing an extremely important role in maintaining ecological security and promoting economic development.Shaanxi Province is a typical ecological fragile area in the northwest of China,but also an important part of the Yellow River Basin,and is an important part of the ecological protection and economic development of the Yellow River Basin.For many years,due to the over-exploitation in the Yellow River Basin,the Yellow River Basin in Shaanxi Province has been particularly affected by the lack of ecological and environmental carrying capacity,water shortage and deep environmental pollution,which is incompatible with the sustainable development concepts of "adhering to the harmonious coexistence of man and nature" and "green water and green mountains are the silver mountain of gold" and others sustainable development concepts are not consistent.Since the 18 th Party Congress,the Party Central Committee has taken the construction of ecological civilization as a strategic and fundamental construction,and regarded it as an important link to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.General Secretary Xi has visited the ecological protection and economic and social development of the Yellow River Basin on many occasions,and has made ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin a major national strategy.Shaanxi Provincial Party Committee and Provincial Government have prepared the "Shaanxi Province Yellow River Basin Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development Plan" to implement the national strategic deployment and to coordinate the ecological protection of the Yellow River Basin and achieve high-quality economic and social development.Therefore,it is important to study the land use changes in the Yellow River Basin of Shaanxi Province,analyze the driving mechanism of land use changes,and predict the future spatial distribution trends of land use to achieve ecological protection and high-quality development in the basin.Based on this,this paper takes the Yellow River Basin in Shaanxi Province as the study area,and based on the global land cover data in 2000,2010,and 2020,the land use model is used to derive the land use change in each stage,and further recognize the current situation and improvement of the ecological environment in the study area;in addition,the PLUS model is applied to explore the driving mechanism of land use change in the study area,and analyze the potential causes of land use change.In addition,the PLUS model is applied to explore the driving mechanism of land use change in the study area and analyze the potential causes of land use change;finally,this paper also combines the random seed and threshold decreasing mechanism to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030 under three scenarios,which provides a reference for the future development planning of the Yellow River Basin in Shaanxi Province.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)Based on the Globe Land30 land use type data of the Yellow River Basin(Shaanxi section)for the periods of 2000,2010 and 2020,the changes of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,man-made surface,water bodies and bare land in the study area for the periods of2000-2010 and 2010-2020 were obtained by the land use change model,and further analysis was conducted to obtain the spatial land use The results show that the main types of changes are man-made surface and cropland.(2)Based on the current land use situation,topography and geomorphology,climate and hydrology,and socio-economic conditions of the Yellow River Basin(Shaanxi),10 driving factors were selected to analyze the driving mechanism of land use type change,and the factors with strong covariance were eliminated by correlation analysis,and finally 9 driving factors were retained to construct the PLUS model.(3)Based on the PLUS model,the driving force analysis of the expansion of six land use types in the Yellow River Basin(Shaanxi section)from 2000-2010 and 2010-2020 was conducted,and the driving factors with the greatest contribution to the expansion of each feature type were obtained,and the development probability and expansion mechanism of each type of land use were further obtained based on the PLUS model analysis.The results show that the changes in the spatial pattern of land use of each feature type are mainly influenced by policy,local GDP and population density.(4)Based on the development probability of land use types from 2000 to 2010,the spatial distribution of land use in 2020 is simulated and checked for accuracy,and the simulation accuracy is high.The PLUS model is further constructed by combining the land use demand in 2030 derived from Markov chain to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030 in the Yellow River Basin(Shaanxi section)under multiple scenarios,and the results of the study can provide decision aids for the government’s land use planning.