Environmental Tax Rates Optimization Based On Integrated Model Simulation

The rapid development of global industry and the rapid growth of population have promoted the rapid economic growth.However,it has also led to the worsening of the global climate environment.The massive emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and air pollutants such as sulfur dioxide,nitrogen oxide and smoke dust have posed great risks to human health and long-term development.Government macrocontrol through a variety of policies is an important way to mitigate air pollution and greenhouse gas,among which environmental tax is widely used worldwide as an important measure.Due to the differences in energy structure,pollution emission intensity,and economic status of different industries,this paper uses environmental protection tax and carbon tax as environmental tax policy tools and adopts Bayesian optimization method based on integrated model simulation to optimize the differentiated environmental tax rate schemes at the industry level.First,we construct an air pollution multi-scenario integrated simulation model with the CGE model of the Chinese economy as the core to simulate and evaluate environmental tax policies in this paper.On this basis,a Linkage simulation optimization framework combining integrated model simulation and Bayesian optimization algorithm is proposed to maximize GDP on the premise of meeting environmental planning objectives,so as to explore the optimal environmental tax rate scheme to realize the multi-objective optimization of economy and environment.Secondly,we design simulation scenarios of environmental tax policies with different tax rate levels in this paper,compare the different impact mechanisms of environmental protection tax and carbon tax on environment and economy,and discusses the impacts of different environmental tax rate level on the overall environment and economy.In addition,this paper also designs environmental tax policy optimization scenarios for different policy implementation methods,uses Bayesian optimization methods based on integrated model simulation to optimize environmental tax rate schemes under different scenarios,and compares and analyzes the optimization results.Taking China as an example,the results show that the coordinated implementation of environmental protection tax and carbon tax policies,as well as the implementation of sectoral differentiated environmental tax rates,could better balance economic development and environmental governance.Besides,the optimal taxation scheme proposed in this paper could mitigate air pollution and greenhouse gas,promote economic growth,and realize sustainable economic and environmental development.Also,the optimized environmental tax rate scheme brings positive effects on both energy structure and industrial structure.