Research On The Impact Of High-speed Rail On Regional Low-carbon Logistics With The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region For Example

With the planning and implementation of the “eight vertical and eight horizontal”high-speed railway trunk network,China’s high-speed railway has covered most of the provinces and cities.By the end of 2022,the total mileage of high-speed railroads in China has exceeded 42,000 km,far ahead of the rest of the world,and the construction of high-speed railroads in China is still ongoing.During the “14th Five-Year Plan”period,the logistics industry,as an important pillar industry of national economic development,plays an indispensable role in enhancing China’s comprehensive national strength and international competitiveness,and bears the important responsibility of energy conservation and emission reduction.It is imperative to vigorously develop green logistics and accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of the logistics industry.Firstly,this thesis analyzes the impact mechanism of the whole life cycle of highspeed rail on the carbon emission of regional logistics industry,and then measures the carbon emission of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei logistics industry by accounting for the current energy consumption of regional logistics industry and adopting the calculation method of IPCC based on transportation fuel consumption.Secondly,this thesis argues that the high-quality development of logistics industry needs to take double carbon as the goal to lead and implement the concept of “green” development.Based on the data of each year before and after the opening of high-speed railways in each province and city in China,this thesis uses multi-temporal DID to examine the impact of carbon emissions of logistics in provinces and cities along the route after the opening of highspeed railways from three perspectives: low-carbon logistics economic environment,low-carbon logistics development level,and railroad logistics industry scale.Thirdly,this thesis accounts for the carbon emissions of high-speed rail express transportation in logistics industry from the perspective of high-speed rail express transportation.This thesis constructs a Logit model to calculate the share of high-speed railway express transport volume in the total express transport of logistics industry,followed by a gray prediction model to forecast the express volume of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and then calculates the freight OD volume of high-speed railway express nodes to account for the carbon emissions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei high-speed railway freight nodes and the share of high-speed railway express transport carbon emissions in the carbon emissions of logistics industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.Finally,this thesis presents the development suggestions and future outlook of the low-carbon logistics industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei under the condition of high-speed rail.The study concluded that:(1)At different stages of high-speed rail opening,there are significant differences in carbon emissions from logistics industry in BeijingTianjin-Hebei region.The energy consumption structure dominated by oil products leads to rapid economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,but also causes huge environmental pollution.(2)High-speed rail has a significant impact on the growth rate of carbon emissions in the logistics industry along the provinces and cities,and that railway freight turnover also has a significant negative impact on the growth rate of carbon emissions in the logistics industry;high-speed rail reduces the growth rate of carbon emissions in the logistics industry along the provinces and cities,and that increasing railway freight turnover can promote the decline of carbon emissions growth rate in the logistics industry,resulting in freight increment substitution effect.(3)The direct manifestation of high-speed rail in logistics industry is opening up highspeed rail freight business,and carbon emissions from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei highspeed rail express show an increasing trend overall.The proportion of carbon emissions in regional logistics is also increasing.(4)It is suggested to promote healthy development of low-carbon logistics industry under high-speed rail conditions from perspectives of increasing fixed asset investment,increasing infrastructure;building reasonable operation diagrams,reducing direct time of high-speed rail;increasing railway freight turnover,promoting shift of logistics transportation center to high-speed rail mode.