The Impact Of Carbon Trading Pilot Policies On China’s Provincial Industrial Carbon Total Factor Productivity

In recent decades,as the world’s largest developing country,China has achieved rapid economic growth largely at the cost of excessive consumption of energy resources,which inevitably leads to serious environmental problems.In order to coordinate the relationship between economic growth and environmental protection,the Climate Change Department of the National Development and Reform Commission approved the implementation of carbon emission trading pilot projects in seven provinces and cities,namely Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Shenzhen,Tianjin,Hubei,and Chongqing,at the end of October 2011.The aim is to explore and gradually establish a national carbon emission trading market to promote the achievement of China’s carbon emission reduction goals.Industry,as an important engine of China’s economic growth,is the largest sector in energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions,and also the largest participant in carbon trading.Total factor productivity can not only be used to measure the quality of China’s industrial economic growth,but also to evaluate the development mode of China’s industrial economy.Compared to traditional total factor productivity,carbon total factor productivity considers energy and carbon emission factors related to economic growth,which can more accurately reflect the current situation of China’s economic development.Therefore,studying the impact of carbon trading pilot policies on China’s industrial carbon total factor productivity can help to scientifically evaluate the implementation effect of carbon trading pilot policies,provide empirical evidence for policy promotion,and have important practical significance for achieving low-carbon transformation in China’s industry.This article takes provincial heterogeneity as the premise.First,by constructing the industrial input-output panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019,the DDFGML index model is used to calculate the industrial carbon total factor productivity index and its decomposition items of each province,so as to analyze the growth of industrial carbon total factor productivity of 30 provinces in China and its power source.Secondly,a treatment group and a control group were constructed through the double difference method(DID)to study the impact of carbon trading pilot policies on China’s industrial carbon total factor productivity,and robustness tests were conducted through the placebo test and the propensity score matching method(PSM-DID).Finally,further explore the impact mechanism of carbon trading pilot policies on China’s industrial carbon total factor carbon productivity,and analyze the heterogeneous impact of the implementation environment of carbon trading pilot policies.The research results indicate that:(1)The industrial carbon total factor productivity of 30 provinces in China is showing an upward trend,and low-carbon technology innovation is the main driving force for the growth of industrial carbon total factor productivity in each province.(2)Carbon trading can effectively promote the growth of industrial carbon total factor productivity in pilot provinces Low carbon technology innovation and marketization are the two main paths for carbon trading to drive the growth of China’s industrial carbon total factor productivity In provinces with strong environmental law enforcement efforts,carbon trading pilot projects have a stronger impact on the growth of China’s industrial carbon total factor productivity.Based on empirical results,this article proposes the following policy recommendations for improving carbon trading policies and promoting the growth of China’s industrial carbon total factor productivity:(1)Develop emission reduction targets based on provincial characteristics,and policy formulation should balance fairness and efficiency.(2)Expand the coverage of the carbon trading market.(3)Encourage and guide low-carbon technological innovation.(4)Improve and innovate the carbon trading market mechanism.(5)Accelerate the construction of a legal system and regulatory platform for carbon trading.