Research On Multi-Source Risk Management Of Green Regeneration In Old Industrial Areas Based On Social Network Analysis

Green Regeneration of Old Industrial Areas(hereinafter referred to as GROIA)is an important means to solve the shortage of urban land resources and achieve sustainable urban regeneration and green development.The findings of the research group show that as a livelihood project with complex site conditions,a wide area involved,a variety of participants,a long construction period and a large scope of influence,the green regeneration risks in the development process are frequent and tend to be multi-sourced,making it difficult to achieve the expected green performance.It is of great significance to ensure the completion of the project and its benefits.To this end,the thesis focuses on the following research on the risks of green regeneration in old industrial areas.Firstly,we systematically analyse the impact mechanism of the green performance of GROIA,identify the risk factors and influence relationships of the green regeneration of GROIA projects,and construct a risk network model of GROIA projects.Based on the initial identification of risk factors,a Work Breakdown Structure-Risk Breakdown Structure(WBS-RBS)coupling matrix is established,and staff from various stakeholders of the GROIA project are selected for expert interviews to carry out risk factor The second revision was carried out to finally obtain the GROIA risk list;the expert interview method was used to quantify the risk relationships,and the risk network model of the GROIA project was constructed in three dimensions: process source,subject source and system source.Secondly,the risk transmission mechanism of the GROIA project is studied in depth to reveal the transmission pattern and inner role of the risk factors of the GROIA project,and to effectively identify the key risks and relationships of the GROIA project.Based on the GROIA project risk network model,the study uses the Social Network Analysis(SNA)method to quantify block model analysis,point centrality,inter-point(line)centrality and intermediary analysis,and realise the analysis of the properties of the GROIA project risk network structure,degree of association,control ability and connection hubs.In turn,the analysis of the criticality of the GROIA project risk network is realised.Finally,a GROIA project risk evaluation model is constructed to comprehensively evaluate the risk level of GROIA projects and propose targeted risk prevention and control strategies.Based on the analysis results of the structural attributes,degree of association,control ability and connection hubs of the GROIA risk network,combined with the identification results of key risk factors,the entropy method is used to assign weights to key risk factors according to the discrete degree of change in the ranking of different characteristics;the expert interview method is applied to determine the degree of impact and probability of occurrence of GROIA project risks,quantify the GROIA project risk score,and determine the overall project risk level.The study also used expert interviews to determine the degree of impact and probability of occurrence of GROIA project risks,quantify the GROIA project risk score and determine the overall project risk level,and use this as a reference to propose risk management strategies.The study shows that the risk management of GROIA projects should be based on the study of "relationships" to identify key risks and key relationships;the risk network of GROIA projects has obvious characteristics and the risks are closely linked.The four risk factors with the most intermediary roles and the highest intermediary centrality are located at the core of the network,and the six risk relationships with the highest intermediary centrality have the strongest transmission capacity;the key risk factors are mostly response risks and stress risks,which mainly originate from the design unit,and the key risk relationships are mainly the influence of the decision-making phase on the design phase and the design phase on the construction phase.The study explains the intrinsic relationships between risk factors in GROIA projects,identifies the risk factors that play a mediating role and the risk relationships that play a transmitting role,breaks through the limitations of traditional individual risk studies,considers the transmission effects between risks,and provides a theoretical basis for introducing social networks into the risk management of such complex construction projects.