| Mine water gushing had always been one of the most intractability problems the mining process,which not only directly endangered the production safety of the mine and the personal safety of the staff,but also had possibility to cause great damage to the regional groundwater resources.The future mine with the increase in mining depth,the amount of water gushing also increased,mine gushing water to become the dominant factor limiting the deep mine mining.In order to ensure the safety of the future mine deep in each of the middle section activities,it is necessary to have advance knowledge of the mine mining caused by the mine gushing water,combined with the analysis of the gushing water prediction in advance of water damage countermeasures.Since the extraction of Guangxi Panlong lead-zinc mine in 2008,Mining production had been facing the impact of surface-water and groundwater infiltration.According to the mine planning,the mine will be mined to the deeper part in the future(mining elevation-440 to1100 m).Furthermore,the water storage in the Qianjiang River section of the Datengxia Water Conservancy Hub in 2019 which strengthened the counter-recharge effect of the Qianjiang River,that increased the risk of mine water gushing.This study analyzed the hydrogeological characteristics of Guangxi Panlong lead-zinc mine,that was a karst mine with large water volume.The time series variation of the influx of water and the prediction of the influx of water research were studied by the combination of long-term monitoring data of mine inflow and meteorological and hydrological data of the study area.In addition the method application of deterministic analysis method include R/S analysis and fractal dimensional analysis,nondeterministic analysis method include ARIMA model and GMS model.The prevention and control measures were put forward according to the existing water hazard risk in mining area.The main conclusions were as follows:(1)According to the R/S analysis results,the intra-annual surge water series had obvious long-term dependence,and the future development trend of water inflow showed strong persistence with the historical trend,which was related to the seasonal changes of meteorological and hydrological elements.The interannual influx series(2010-2021)had a weak long-term dependence and deviated from the past trend of water inflow,which may be related to the increased of mining depth,the changed of hydrogeological conditions and water storage activities of Qianjiang River.The results of fractal dimension analysis showed that,in the years of 2010-2021,the water inflow in Panlong lead-zinc mine fluctuated obviously when the fractal dimension of the water inflow series was large.The fractal dimension of the interannual water inflow series was larger than that of the year-by-year analysis because of the overall study time series became longer,resulted in increased of volatility.(2)The prediction results of the ARIMA model showed that,the MAPE value of the segmentalized forecast water surge of the mining area in 2020 were all less than 10%,whereas the accuracy of forecast results of water inflow in 2021 was worse than that of the simulation result in 2020,because of the prediction time was far away,and the mine area pioneering layer was deepening.The prediction results of GMS model showed that the predicted simulated total amount of water inflow in 2020 and 2021 were 853.32 and 917.15 m3/h respectively,which were 6.16%and 12.57%different from the actual measured water surge in the mine area.(3)The existing countermeasures for Panlong lead-zinc mine were as follows:The western runoff zone was controlled to further delineate the specific location of the runoff zone.Backfill treatment was carried out in the karst collapse of mining area.Drainage or backfill treatment was adopted in the waterlogged depressions.Furtherly,to investigate and seal bad boreholes and to optimize the deployment of the groundwater observation network in the mine area. |
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