Research On Urban Security Risk And Capability Assessment Model

With the rapid development of my country’s economy and the comprehensive advancement of the urbanization process,various urban safety accidents occur from time to time.These accidents and disasters not only seriously damage economic development,but also seriously threaten people’s lives.Therefore,improving urban security and ensuring the safety of residents’ lives and property is an important problem we face.The premise of solving urban safety problems is to master the concept and connotation of urban safety,and build a corresponding evaluation model on this basis,which can not only clarify the key points and difficulties in the process of urban safety construction,but also plan layout and disaster events for urban safety.Provide targeted decision support.From the perspective of risk and capability,this paper studies the relevant theoretical models in the field of urban security,summarizes the concepts and connotations of risk,capability and urban security,and establishes the logical relationship between the three.An urban safety assessment index system based on "risk-capacity" is established,the assessment index is quantitati vely graded,and the initial data of the index is converted into the input data of the assessment model.The subjective weight of the index system is calculated by the analytic hierarchy process,and the subjective weight of the indexes at all levels is finally determined through the analysis of each reference layer;the simulation training is carried out with the help of BP neural network,and the training results of the three algorithms and the number of nodes in different hidden layers are compared by comparing the training results,and finally select the B-R algorithm with better training results and smaller relative error,and obtain the objective weight of the index system.Finally,the multiple fusion assignment method is used to synthesize the two to obtain the comprehensive weight,which not only ensures the scientificity and objectivity of the evaluation model,but also reflects the feasibility and operability of the evaluation model.The evaluation model can provide a theoretical basis for urban safety evaluation and a decision-making reference for urban safety workers.Combined with the characteristics of urban safety risks,with the help of extreme learning machine algorithm,a prediction model of urban safety status is built.According to the training results of sample data,the accuracy of the prediction model is as high as 95%,which verifies the feasibility of the prediction model.Finally,a city was evaluated using the evaluation model,with a score of 6.611(safe state).Improvement measures are put forward for the city’s urban operation system,urban public safety risks,risk prevention capabilities and emergency response capabilities,aiming to improve the urban safety level of a city,ensure the healthy and sustainable development of urban safety construction,and ensure the safety of residents’ lives and property.