Research On Influence Factors And Decoupling Of Carbon Emissions From Transportation Industry In Yangtze River Delta Region

On September 22,2020,at the seventy-fifth session of the United Nations General Assembly,China clearly proposed that "China will increase its national independent contribution,adopt more effective policies and measures,strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060".The "double carbon" strategic goal plan in 2021 was formally included in the work report of the Chinese government.In the context of the "double carbon" strategy,all walks of life will face opportunities and challenges.The Yangtze River Delta economic Circle,with its advantages of a vast area,dense population and the largest economic aggregate in China,has become an important region with broad coverage,rich functions and strong gathering radiation capacity in our country.Its well-developed transportation network and the amount of energy needed to carry goods and freight are increasing year by year.Therefore,it is the only way to achieve green and low-carbon development of the transport industry to go deep into the transport industry and explore in detail the change trend,development law and main carbon emission factors of carbon dioxide emissions brought by various energy sources and influencing factors.For the realization of the national "double carbon" strategic goal has important contribution support significance.Based on the theories of sustainable development,low-carbon economy and the relationship between environment and development,this paper systematically studies the transportation industry of three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta region.Based on the bottom-up carbon emission accounting model of IPCC,the current development status of carbon emissions from the transport industry in the Yangtze River Delta was deeply analyzed.Combined with Kaya identity,the LMDI model of influencing factors of carbon emissions from the transport industry in the Yangtze River Delta was constructed to decompose driving factors of carbon emissions from the transport industry in the Yangtze River Delta.Through the two-stage research method of LMDI model and Tapio decoupling model,the driving factors affecting decoupling changes were explored.The following relevant results are obtained:(1)Based on the IPCC framework theory and the bottom-up scientific statistical accounting method of carbon emissions,combined with the actual development level of the transport industry in the Yangtze River Delta region,the statistical accounting model of carbon emissions of the transport industry is constructed,and then the change trend and emission reduction efficiency of the transport industry are evaluated and analyzed from the time and space level.The results showed that the total carbon emissions of transportation in the Yangtze River Delta showed a trend of soaring development,and the total carbon emissions in 2020 decreased compared with that in 2019 due to the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic.The overall growth trend of carbon emissions increased from12199.59 million tons in 2012 to 15666638 million tons in 2020,with an average annual increase of 3.18% and a cumulative increase of 28.41%.Meanwhile,among the three provinces and one city,Shanghai had the highest carbon emission,accounting for 32.94%of the total carbon emission in the Yangtze River Delta.Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province followed,contributing 30.04% and 22.24% of carbon emissions,respectively.Anhui Province contributed the least,only 14.78 percent.(2)Based on Kaya identity,carbon emissions from the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta are separated into four driving factors,namely,energy structure effect,energy efficiency effect,development level effect and population size effect.Based on this,the LMDI-Kaya factor decomposition model of carbon emissions was constructed to analyze the contribution of driving factors to the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta.The results show that the development level is the core driving factor for the growth of carbon emissions from the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta,with a cumulative contribution rate of 84.68%,followed by population size and energy structure,with a cumulative contribution rate of 55.42 and 13.19%,respectively.Energy efficiency is an important factor inhibiting the growth of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta,with a cumulative contribution of-53.29%.Jiangsu Province is the major contributor to the growth of carbon emissions from the transport sector in the Yangtze River Delta,with cumulative incremental emissions of 17.3521 million tons,contributing 50.05%.Followed by Anhui Province 6,916,100 tons and Zhejiang Province 6,38600 tons,contributing 19.95%and 18.42%,respectively;The carbon emission increment of Shanghai was the lowest,which was 4,013,800 tons,with only 11.58% contribution rate.From the analysis of provincial factors,the factors that promote and inhibit carbon emissions both come from Shanghai.Among them,the development level factor contributes the most to the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta,reaching 2.8872 million tons.The energy efficiency has the most obvious effect on the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta,reaching-220.392 million tons.(3)Tapio decoupling model was used to study the dynamic decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and transport development in the transport industry in the Yangtze River Delta during 2012-2020.Combined with the decomposition results of LMDI model,the decoupling model and decoupling driving factor model of transport industry in the Yangtze River Delta were constructed to analyze the decoupling state between carbon emission growth and transport development.The results show that the decoupling effect of transport development and carbon emission storage in the Yangtze River Delta has experienced from weak decoupling state in the early stage to expanding negative decoupling state in the middle stage,and the state of declining decoupling in the late stage.In one of the three provinces,only Zhejiang Province and Shanghai are in a relatively ideal state of weak decoupling,while Anhui Province and Jiangsu Province are in an expanding negative decoupling effect of carbon emissions decoupling.Energy efficiency factor is the main factor to promote the decoupling of transport carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta,and population size factor is the primary reason for the decoupling decline of transport carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta.The influence and direction of energy structure and development level on driving the decoupling of carbon emissions are different among provinces and cities.