Ecological Risk Assessment And Identification Of Priority Protected Zone In "Three North" Region

The "Three North" region is deemed to be an essential ecological barrier as well as a natural resource preserve in China.Nonetheless,the region is also predisposed to certain ecological risks.Due to this,there exists an impending need to conduct a comprehensive,scientific,and meticulous assessment of the ecological risks present in the "Three North" region.Such an evaluation is pivotal in enhancing the harmonious symbiosis between human society and the natural environment.This study is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote the harmonious relationship between human society and the natural environment.Specifically,this study intends to create a two-dimensional matrix by utilizing meteorological data,multi-period remote sensing data,and land use data.The Carnegie Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA)model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(In VEST)model are implemented to estimate the carbon sequestration capacity,soil conservation capacity,habitat quality and water yield.The impairment values of each of these estimates are regarded as a loss representation and the topographic sensitivity,ecological sensitivity,ecological resilience and landscape vulnerability are treated as probabilistic representations.The purpose of this study is to evaluate ecological risks within the "Three North" region,identify conservation areas that require priority attention,and suggest future ecological protection mechanisms based on the evaluation results.Ultimately,the findings from this study are intended to serve as a decision-making aid for future ecological engineering construction in the "Three North" region.The results of the study show that:(1)The risk probability shows significant spatial variation,with level 5probability being the dominant category,accounting for 72.26% of the total study area.The high probability areas are mainly situated in Tarim Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,northwestern Inner Mongolia,junction of Shaanxi,Gansu,and Ningxia,and Hebei Province.In contrast,the low probability regions,accounting for <5%,are concentrated in the junction areas of Tianshan Mountains,Qilian Mountains,Kunlun Mountains,and Bayankola Mountains,as well as in Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture and Altay in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.There is a similarity in the spatial distribution of ecological loss and risk probabilities.Approximately 52.05% of the areas show increased losses and are mainly situated in some parts of Liaoning Province,northern Shaanxi Province,and northwestern and southwestern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.However,about 40.17% of areas depict a reduction in losses and are mainly situated in the Tarim Basin and northwestern part of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.(2)The ecological risk level primarily consists of medium and medium-high risk,with the cumulation of these two categories accounting for 84.92% of the study area.In contrast,areas united by low and medium-low risk constitute 7.48 %,while high-risk areas constitute only 7.6%.After taking into account the proportion of high-risk distribution in 109 prefecture-level cities,several ecological priority protection areas were identified.These areas include Turpan District,Yuncheng County,Hengshui City,Cangzhou City,Langfang City,Tianjin City,Changchun City,Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture,Suihua City,Qiqihar City,Harbin City,and Qitaihe City.(3)Ecological priority protection areas and their corresponding protection strategies can be identified based on the spatial distribution of ecological risks and actual ecological environment.(1)The Risk priority control zone should focus on controlling and reducing ecological risks by considering the proportion and layout of each land use type.(2)The Risk secondary control zone should adjust the cultivation structure of arable and forest land,aiming to enrich the diversity of plant species and improve the ecological environment quality.(3)The Risk tertiary control zone aims to improve the quality of arable land without reducing its area by strengthening ecological construction,prioritizing sand prevention and control,and promoting the construction of the Three-North Shelterbelt Program Project,Grain for Green Project and Grazing restoration project.(4)The objective of the Risk quaternary control zone is rational planning of land use to maintain the ecosystem’s sustainable development in the "Three North" area.(5)In the Ecological priority protection zone,the focus should be on building the ecological protection systems for forest resources.Strict control of the destructive construction activities and implementation of the Three-North Shelterbelt Program Project,Grain for Green Project,and Natural Forest Resources Protection Project should also be emphasized.In summary,ecological risks in the "Three North" region are primarily medium to medium-high,and based on the risk distribution,priority protection areas are identified,and preliminary ecological protection strategies are discussed.As a result,this study provides a foundation for decisions related to ecological engineering construction,resource management,and environmental restoration projects in the "Three North" region.