Research On The Evaluation And Simulation Regulation Of The Water Environment Carrying Capacity Of Dianchi Basin

Water environment carrying capacity is an important indicator affecting the sustainable development of the region,and is a powerful basis for judging whether social and economic development and water environmental protection are coordinated.Scientific evaluation of the water environment carrying capacity is an important prerequisite for solving the problems of water shortage and water environment pollution.The Dianchi basin is geographically advantageous,rich in resources,and is not only the economic core area of Kunming city,but also has important ecological value.The study of water environment carrying capacity evaluation and simulation regulation of Dianchi basin not only has important support significance for achieving ecological environmental protection and sustainable socioeconomic development of the basin,but also has important reference value for ecological environment and social development of similar areas.This study takes the Dianchi basin as the study area,and through the analysis of the current situation,the pressure-state-response(PSR)model is used to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the water environment carrying capacity of the Dianchi basin,and the evaluation indexes are graded;on this basis,a system dynamics model for the evaluation of the water environment carrying capacity of the basin is established,and six scenarios are designed: inertia development,priority source control,priority emission reduction and control,priority pollution interception and treatment,priority flow saving,priority capacity increase and comprehensive control.On the basis of this,the system dynamics model was established,six scenarios of inertia development,source control priority,emission reduction priority,pollution control priority,flow control priority,capacity increase priority,and comprehensive control were designed,and the simulation and comprehensive evaluation of the water environment carrying capacity of Dianchi basin under different priority control measures were carried out,the core constraints were analyzed,and the strategic suggestions for water environment protection and management in Dianchi basin were proposed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The water environment carrying capacity of Dianchi basin improved significantly from 2011 to 2020,from level IV(0.24)in 2011 to level II(0.62)in 2020,and the indicators of pressure,status and response improved significantly,reflecting that the carrying capacity of Dianchi basin water environment to the society and economy has gradually increased,and the water environment quality has gradually improved,while the water environment protection and management measures are being improved.(2)The simulation evaluation found that the overall water environment carrying capacity of Dianchi basin from 2021 to 2035 shows an increase and then a decrease,and the carrying capacity decreases to 0.56 in 2035,indicating that it is difficult to improve the water environment carrying capacity of Dianchi basin under the inertia development scenario.(3)The water environment carrying capacity of Dianchi basin under each optimal control scenario shows different degrees of improvement compared with the inertial development scenario,and the improvement effect is as follows: Scenario 5(comprehensive control)> Scenario 4(priority of flow saving and capacity increase)> Scenario 1(priority of source control and control)> Scenario 3(priority of pollution interception and treatment)>Scenario 2(priority of emission reduction and control)> inertial development scenario.This paper concludes that integrated regulation is the optimal strategy to achieve continued improvement of the water environmental carrying capacity of the Dianchi basin.