Research On The Effect Of China’s Green Financial On Industrial Structure Upgrading

In 2021,the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council put forward the key tasks for achieving peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality in the document "Opinions on Fully Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality." These tasks include promoting comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society,deepening the adjustment of industrial structure,and strengthening major green and low-carbon technological breakthroughs and their widespread application.Green finance not only serves the function of resource allocation but also emphasizes environmental protection by guiding capital flows towards green and environmentally friendly industries,thereby promoting the coordinated development of the economy and the environment and exerting a critical influence on industrial structural upgrading.Therefore,this thesis analyzes the impact of green finance policies on industrial structural upgrading from the perspective of causal inference,both theoretically and empirically.In the theoretical part,this thesis clarifies the theoretical assumptions and policy background.Chinese green finance features a "top-level design" that plays a top-down signaling role,guiding the market to respond according to policies and raising the financing threshold for "two highs and one surplus" enterprises.It is a means for the government to guide the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure.Based on theoretical analysis and existing literature,combined with the background of green finance,this thesis analyzes the mechanisms and channels through which green finance affects industrial structural upgrading from the perspectives of financing constraints,environmental regulations,marketization level,and green technological innovation.These analyses provide a basis for identifying the causal effects of green finance on industrial structural upgrading.In the empirical research part,this thesis uses a panel dataset of Chinese provincial-level data from 2010 to 2019 as the research sample.After clarifying the hierarchical and structural aspects of the data,identifying assumptions and identification strategies,a two-way fixed effects continuous double-difference model is constructed to estimate the impact of green finance development on industrial structural upgrading using regional differences in the development of green finance.By conducting tests such as parallel trends and dynamic effects,placebo tests,outlier removal,and employing the two-period difference-in-differences method,the reliability of the empirical results is improved.The study finds that:(1)the development of green finance significantly promotes industrial structural upgrading;(2)in terms of mechanisms,the promotion effect of green finance on industrial structural upgrading is more pronounced in eastern and central regions and regions with a higher degree of marketization;(3)the promotion effect of green finance on industrial structural upgrading weakens with increasing regional financing constraints and environmental pollution levels;(4)in terms of channels,the development of green finance significantly promotes the increase in the number of green invention patents but does not have a significant effect on the number of green utility model patents.This indicates that the development of green finance promotes industrial structural upgrading through the promotion of green technological innovation.Furthermore,using a panel dataset of Chinese provincial-level data from 2010 to2021,a two-way fixed effects dynamic spatial Durbin model is employed to analyze the spatial effects of green finance development on industrial structural upgrading.The study finds that in the short term,the direct and total effects of green finance development on industrial structural upgrading are significant,while the indirect effect is not significant.In the long term,the direct,indirect,and total effects of green finance development on industrial structural upgrading are all significant.This suggests that the long-term development of green finance has a significant promoting effect on industrial structural upgrading in all regions.The policy implication of the research findings is that the government can promote industrial structure upgrading by(1)further improving the green financial system and providing corresponding green financial services to enterprises,thus promoting the development of green industries and realizing industrial structure upgrading;(2)giving full play to the role of the green financial market in resource allocation,encouraging investment in green industries,supporting the R&D and application of green technologies,and promoting industrial structure upgrading;(3)promoting the mutual synergy between green finance and environmental protection regulation to promote the green development of enterprises,thus realizing industrial structure upgrading;(4)promoting the coordinated development of green finance among regions,guiding and supporting green financial cooperation among regions,and promoting regional industrial structure upgrading.