Research On Ship Navigation Safety In The Fluctuating Backwater Zone Of The Three Gorges Based On FTA-BN

With the implementation of the strategy of strengthening the country in transportation and the overall acceleration of the construction of the shipping center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in Chongqing,the shipping industry in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River has developed rapidly.With the increase of water traffic,the safety situation of water traffic is also becoming more and more severe.Affected by the water level adjustment of the Three Gorges Reservoir and the upstream water,the fluctuating backwater area changes between the natural waterway and the waterway in the reservoir area.In the ebb and flow period of the water level before the annual flood,the voyages in the fluctuating backwater area gradually change from the reservoir area channel to the natural channel,and some narrow,curved,shallow,dangerous,and rapid voyages are prominent,threatening the safety of ships.In recent years,inland water traffic accidents have occurred frequently.Among them,the accident rate in the fluctuating backwater area is higher,and it is characterized by high complexity,strong suddenness,difficulty in supervision and rescue,and great social impact.The fluctuating backwater area is therefore listed as one of the "ten risk sources" of the Yangtze River water safety supervision.After the construction of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway was upgraded to a national development strategy,the shipping and economy of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River have achieved considerable development,and the requirements for the navigation environment and order in the waters have also been further improved.It is of great significance to carry out research and risk assessment on the safety of ship navigation in the fluctuating backwater area to provide targets for taking corresponding safety measures,and to ensure the safety of waters and the order of ship navigation.In this paper,the system engineering theory,fault tree analysis method,Bayesian network and Monte Carlo are used to study the safety of ship navigation in the fluctuating backwater area.The main research contents are as follows.Risk identification and causative analysis of water traffic accidents in fluctuating backwater area.According to the accident data,the temporal and spatial characteristics of the accident are statistically analyzed,and based on the system engineering theory,the risk factors of water traffic accidents in the fluctuating backwater area are identified.Combined with the analysis of accident cases,the fault tree analysis method is used to construct the causal model of water traffic accidents in the fluctuating backwater area,and the key causes of the accident are identified.Navigation risk assessment of ships in fluctuating backwater area based on Bayesian network.A Bayesian network model was constructed for the accident probability and accident consequence,and the sensitivity analysis of the accident probability model was carried out to identify the key factors affecting the water traffic accident in the fluctuating backwater area.The risk matrix method is introduced and then combined with the accident probability and consequence model,a Bayesian network model of ship navigation risk in the fluctuating backwater area is established to realize the risk assessment of the navigation risk in the fluctuating backwater area.Navigation risk simulation and research on safety management countermeasures.The Monte Carlo method is introduced to further simulate the navigation risk in the fluctuating backwater area under the framework of the Bayesian network model.Combined with the research conclusions and the current situation of navigation safety assurance and management in the fluctuating backwater area,targeted safety management countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.