Study On The Value Evaluation Of XX Energy-Saving And Environmental Protection Enterprises Based On Grey Prediction Improved FCFF Model

Since the "11th Five-Year Plan",China has vigorously developed the circular economy,promoted the development of energy conservation and emission reduction technology,and aimed to build a resource-saving and environment-friendly society.With the strong support of relevant policies,a large number of energy conservation and environmental protection enterprises have emerged at the historic moment.China’s Energy saving and environmental protection industry has reached an unprecedented level of scale.With the proposal of the "Double Carbon" goal and the smooth implementation of the "20th National Congress",it has brought unprecedented huge demand for the development of the Energy saving and environmental protection industry.The value evaluation results of listed energy-saving and environmental protection enterprises can not only provide decision-making reference for investors in the capital market,but also provide a basis for predicting the development prospects of China’s energy-saving and environmental protection industry,helping researchers to further analyze the development of China’s Energy saving and environmental protection industry.At present,compared with other popular research fields,there are relatively few studies on the value of listed energy conservation and environmental protection enterprises.Based on this perspective,this thesis has conducted some research and exploration on the value evaluation methods of listed energy conservation and environmental protection enterprises.This thesis takes XX Energy saving and environmental protection enterprises as the evaluation object,analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of main evaluation methods including asset based method,income method,market method,and real option method,studies the applicability of each method to the evaluation object,and finally selects the FCFF model as the main research method and the market method as the comparison method.In this thesis,a series of improvements have been made to the FCFF model:First,the grey prediction model is introduced to predict the future business income of enterprises,and revised the prediction results of the future free cash flow of the enterprise in subsequent research;Secondly,the discount rate is dynamically processed based on the business status and development model of the case company,as well as changes in the company’s capital structure,to make it more closely related to the development status of the enterprise;Finally,combined with the macroeconomic environment and the development of the industry in which the enterprise is located,the sustainable growth rate of the enterprise in the future is revised.In the market method,this thesis selects the PEG(P/E to Earnings Growth Ratio)index to replace the traditional PE(Price-to-Earning Ratio)index.At the same time,the method for determining the expected growth rate of enterprises has been adjusted,replace the net profit growth rate in the traditional PEG calculation formula with the composite average of the historical net profit growth rate and the main business income growth rate of the comparison enterprise,which has made some amendments to the traditional P/E ratio method.The evaluation results show that the difference between the enterprise value calculated by the PEG model and the total market value of the enterprise on the benchmark date is large,and A more scientific indicator system needs to be established to more accurately predict the expected growth rate of enterprises in the future and obtain more scientific evaluation results.The deviation between the estimated value of XX energy-saving and environmental protection enterprise evaluated using the improved FCFF model and the market value of the enterprise on the evaluation benchmark date is relatively small,indicating that the improved FCFF model can accurately reflect the value of listed energy-saving and environmental protection enterprises,and can provide more scientific and accurate value references for investors’ investment decisions,business managers’ business strategies,and researchers’ future judgments.