Risk Evaluation Of Carbon Emission Rights Pledge Financing Project

With China’s strategic goals of "peaking carbon" and "carbon neutrality" energy-saving and emission reduction by enterprises has gradually become the mainstream trend.China’s energy and chemical enterprises are responsible for promoting social and economic development and are also one of the main forces in energy conservation and emission reduction.In the current market background of rising global raw materials and low demand,many energy and chemical enterprises’ operating conditions are not very well.These enterprises also face more severe financial pressure when carrying out energy conservation and emission reduction.And carbon pledge financing provides a new financing strategy for such enterprises.The financing project mainly refers to the enterprise using the remaining carbon quota as collateral to finance from the bank,which revitalizes the idle carbon assets of enterprises while relieving capital pressure,and promotes enterprises to better carry out low-carbon projects and take the road of sustainable development.Compared to general financing projects,carbon emission pledge financing projects have the characteristics of more project entities,complex risk factors,and complex processes.Also,the carbon right pledge financing project is still in the preliminary development stage,and the research on the theory and method has not yet formed a systematic system.How to ensure the smooth development and operation of the project,and effectively identify and evaluate the project risk has more practical significance.Therefore,based on the perspective of project management risk management,after in-depth understanding of the characteristics of carbon right pledge financing projects,this study established a targeted risk evaluation index system and evaluation methods,and took YL chemical enterprise carbon right pledge financing projects as an example for verification and analysis.Firstly,the background and research direction of the study selection are introduced,while the research methodology and technical path are described.After that,the research theories are outlined,such as property rights theory,project financing and project risk management,while the literature studies related to the concept,model and risk evaluation of carbon rights pledge financing are sorted out to lay the theoretical foundation for the following study.Secondly,using literature analysis and Delphi method to identify and screen the risk factors,this thesis established a risk evaluation index system for this project based on the combination of qualitative and quantitative principles,which contains 6 primary indicators and 22 secondary indicators.Then,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy evaluation method are used to synthesize quantitative indicators and process data.After that,30 enterprise sample data were selected as the learning and validation data for the BP neural network,and the sample data were processed using fuzzy judgment to obtain the input values of the BP neural network.After several training sessions,the model obtained good simulation results.After that,a case study was conducted on the carbon rights pledge financing project of YL Company,and a result with a risk level of average was obtained.Finally,it puts forward the risk response strategies,and expects to bring a method reference of risk evaluation for the subsequent development of such financing projects.