Scenario Simulation And Projection Of Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Waste Incineration Treatment In China

As the surface temperature of the world continues to rise,in order to effectively control greenhouse gas emissions and avoid extreme disasters,various countries and regions have set greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and are taking active actions to address global climate change.In September 2020,China also clearly put forward its carbon peak and carbon neutral targets,and the comprehensive utilization of waste and carbon reduction have become an important path to mitigate climate warming.Nowadays,the disposal of solid waste in China transitions from landfill to incineration-based methods,but there is a lack of systematic and comprehensive research on carbon emissions from incineration treatment,and there are still many problems in solid waste disposal that need to be solved.Therefore,it is important to clarify the characteristics of greenhouse gas emissions and their influencing factors in waste（municipal solid waste（MSW）,hazardous waste,sludge）incineration treatment to provide theoretical support for the future development of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies and measures.In this paper,we analyzed the change patterns of waste generation and incineration treatment data in China,and described the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of waste generation at provincial and municipal levels,and their correlations with the main influencing factors.At the same time,an inventory of GHG emissions from waste incineration treatment at provincial and municipal levels in China from 2002 to 2020 is compiled;secondly,a GHG emission model for incineration treatment is constructed using the system dynamics method,and single and integrated technology emission reduction scenarios are set up to simulate and predict GHG emissions from 2010 to 2050;finally,the future GHG emission reduction potential of incineration treatment is analyzed,and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed.Finally,the future GHG emission reduction potential of incineration treatment is analyzed,and corresponding emission reduction countermeasures and suggestions are proposed.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）Compared with 2002,the MSW incineration treatment volume in China increased by143233600 t in 2020（increased by nearly 52.06%）,and exceeded the sanitary landfill treatment volume for the first time in 2019.In addition,during the past 20 years,waste generation broadly showed a trend of gradual increase from south to north,from east to west,and from large cities to small and medium-sized cities.There are differences in the spatial distribution of unit GDP,per capita and ground average MSW generation and total production in China,with higher per capita waste generation in southeastern coastal cities,while waste generation per unit GDP shows a decreasing trend from north to south,and socioeconomic indicators and waste emissions in different city sizes show a significant increase.（2）The average annual growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions from incineration in China reached 21.9%from 2002 to 2020.China’s GHG emissions from waste show unevenly spatial distribution characteristics,with factors such as GDP and built-up areas among socio-economic indicators showing a significantly positive correlation（p<0.01）.During the accounting period,nearly 92%（accounting for 310 cities）of prefecture-level and above cities nationwide showed an increasing trend of GHG emissions from waste.Small and medium-sized cities in the less developed regions of Northeast China had the lowest average GHG emissions,all of which were below 0.01 million t CO_2e/km².（3）A system dynamics modeling approach was used to integrate social,economic,demographic and other influencing factors,and a set of GHG emission models applicable to waste incineration treatment in China was constructed based on the correlation between MSW and various elements and embedded in the IPCC calculation method.After scientific demonstration,the simulation method was used to visualize the GHG emission results of incineration treatment under different emission reduction scenarios,and to determine the emission reduction potential.（4）In the next 30 years,the emission trends of single-technology emission reduction programs are all on the rise;compared with single-technology emission reduction programs,integrated technology emission reduction programs can achieve peak GHG emissions earlier;the best emission reduction potential is achieved at the end of the incineration treatment process（S7 scenario）.Therefore,it is recommended to adopt effective whole process emission reduction technology measures,continue to strengthen the policy system of source separation,optimize the treatment process,strengthen the end use,and promote the low carbon development of the incineration and treatment industry.