| Since the reform and opening-up policy,the rapid economic development has caused a certain degree of impact on resources and the environment.With the proposal of high-quality development and the idea of "green mountains and clear waters are as valuable as mountains of gold and silver," China’s construction and development structure has gradually adjusted.However,with the advancement of urbanization,the contradiction between limited urban resources and gradually growing urban demands has begun to emerge.The construction of urban public facilities often faces the dilemma of "stopping construction due to opposition" under the joint influence of sedimentary environmental problems and people’s increasing awareness of environmental protection.In recent years,conflicts arising from opposition to construction have become frequent,leading to sharp and severe contradictions that directly affect the government’s image,credibility,social stability,and even leading to local crises,becoming a special public safety event on the rise and drawing high attention from society and decision-makers.Therefore,based on the social combustion theory,the article analyzes the conflict of opposition to construction events from the perspective of social stability,identifies various factors that contribute to their outbreak,quantifies their performance,and establishes a warning model to provide real-time feedback and necessary front-end control of the effect of conflict of opposition to construction events on social stability.Based on previous research results,the study of warning for opposition conflict events is still in the embryonic development stage,and the practical effects of theoretical guidance are unsatisfactory.Further exploration of the warning problem has significant theoretical and practical significance.This article establishes a warning model index system from the perspective of social combustion theory,combining social warning and risk society theory,and establishing three primary indicators: "combustible material," "combustion promoter," and "ignition temperature" from a macro perspective.The article also borrows the DPSIR analysis model from the environmental system engineering field,combines expert research,and establishes 11 secondary indicators of driving force and 45 tertiary indicators of regional GDP,among others,to construct the warning model index system for conflict of opposition to construction events.Subsequently,the article uses the TOPSIS evaluation model,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and the entropy weight method to construct the AHPTOPSIS warning model,the entropy weight-TOPSIS warning model,and the combined AHP-entropy weight-TOPSIS warning model,respectively.The article compares the advantages of each method through the three models to determine the optimal warning model.On the basis of collecting and processing original data,the article provides examples of verification and comparative analysis of five cases: the Sino-French nuclear recycling project in Lianyungang,Jiangsu,the underground garbage transfer station in Jing’an,Shanghai,the Feilaixia garbage incineration power generation project in Guangdong,the garbage incineration power generation project in Wanning,Hainan,and the solar cell panel manufacturing project in Quanzhou,Fujian.Finally,using the AHP-entropy weight-TOPSIS warning model,the article obtains the warning results of 0.600(serious warning),0.298(light warning),0.352(light warning),0.412(moderate warning),and 0.517(moderate warning),which are highly consistent with the real results,demonstrating good performance in warning of conflict of opposition to construction events.Finally,combined with the early warning model and social combustion theory,preventive and defensive measures are proposed from the following three aspects for NIMBY conflict incidents: in terms of reducing "social burning substances",measures are proposed to establish the concept of traceability governance,use big data to empower intelligence early warning,build supporting working mechanisms,create communication mechanisms,and improve the ability of public participation;In terms of controlling "social fuels",measures such as strengthening public opinion supervision,disclosing information,reshaping media responsibility,and promoting grid governance are proposed;In terms of reducing the "ignition temperature",measures such as preparing emergency plans,training full-time teams,deepening service mechanisms and developing social forces are proposed.The research results of this paper enrich the theoretical basis and practical reference of NIMBY conflict early warning and handling,and can provide certain opinions and support for effective prevention and response to NIMBY conflict incidents. |
