Study On Natural Disasters, Livelihood Strategies And Poverty Vulnerability Of Farmer

The 14 th Five-Year Plan period is in the transition period from poverty alleviation to rural revitalization.Preventing large-scale poverty return is a bottom-line task for the comprehensively promoting rural vitalization.The impact of natural disasters has become a risk challenge to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation and effectively link up rural revitalization.China has always been a major agricultural country with frequent natural disasters and severe disasters.However,rural areas often have weak awareness of disaster prevention and insufficient risk resistance capacity.Preventing farmers from returning to poverty due to disasters is an important part of the current anti-poverty work.This paper firstly explores the impact mechanism of natural disasters on farmers’ poverty vulnerability in detail in theory.Secondly,the Vulnerability as Expected Poverty(VEP)method is used to measure and analyze the poverty vulnerability of farmers’ households.Thirdly,based on the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2010 and 2014,the FGLS and Probit models are used to empirically test the impact of natural disasters on farmers’ poverty vulnerability.At the same time,the heterogeneity of its impact is analyzed.On this basis,the moderating effect of livelihood strategies on the impact of natural disasters and poverty vulnerability of farmers is considered,and the nature and extent of their effects are further explored by using the moderating effect test and conditional Markov model.The empirical results show that natural disasters have significantly increased the poverty vulnerability of farmers.From the analysis of the heterogeneity of individual and family characteristics of farmers,government subsidies,agricultural production technology and high education level can reduce the impact of natural disasters on farmers’ vulnerability,while the housing loan factor will aggravate the negative impact.The conclusions remain robust after changing the poverty line and the vulnerability line standards.The mechanism test shows that household income is an important way for natural disasters to affect poverty vulnerability,followed by infrastructure and farmer household health factors.After considering the role of livelihood strategy,it is found that under the impact of natural disasters,the pure agricultural livelihood strategy will significantly increase the poverty vulnerability of farmers’ families due to its high dependence on agricultural income.Agriculture-based livelihood strategy has played a positive regulatory role by means of diversified management and diversification,while the non-agricultural livelihood strategy has not shown a significant moderating effect due to the hedging of positive and negative effects.Further,when the livelihood strategy remains unchanged,the result of the two-level differentiation of the pure agricultural livelihood strategy is obvious;The agriculture-based livelihood strategy is relatively better;Non-agricultural livelihood strategy households that are not vulnerable in the current period have the highest probability of remaining vulnerable in the next period.When the livelihood strategy changes,it is the best strategy combination to change from purely agricultural to agriculture-based livelihood strategy.Finally,according to the research conclusion,this paper suggests that we should pay attention to the poverty vulnerability monitoring of farmers and do a good job of prevention;Improve the human capital of farmers and promote advanced agricultural technology;Improve the social security system and reduce the burden of medical housing purchase of farmers;We will encourage farmers to diversify their businesses and spread disaster risks.