Research On The Spillover Effect Of Transnational Risks In The Stock Price Of Strategic Metals And Minerals

The world today is in the midst of a century of unprecedented changes,major emergencies,the resurgence of geopolitics and resource nationalism and the inevitable need for human technological development have led to the rise of global competition for strategic mineral resources.In 2020,the outline of China’s 14 th Five-Year Plan clearly points out that strategic metal and mineral resources are an important part of the implementation of China’s energy resources security strategy.Energy resources security strategy is an important part of the implementation of China’s energy resources,to effectively improve the security development capacity of strategic resources,to achieve the security of strategic resources can be controlled,to build a solid national security barrier.Therefore,in the context of the sharp volatility of strategic metal and mineral resources prices,it becomes a realistic problem to be solved to study the risk spillover characteristics of strategic metal and mineral resources stock prices such as rare earth,lithium and nickel.First,based on the existing studies,this thesis collates the relevant literature on strategic mineral resources risk spillover and its network characteristics,and theoretically analyzes the impact mechanism of strategic metal and mineral resources risk spillover effect and its network characteristics.Secondly,based on the previous studies,we use the segmented indices(metals and minerals indices)of the authoritative stock indices of six countries with rich strategic metal and mineral resources and influential financial markets to represent the strategic mineral resources stock prices in each country,and study the risk transmission and linkage degree of strategic mineral resources in each country,and establish the spillover network based on the spillover indices from the full time period,the "stock market crash" period and the "stock market crash" period,respectively.The spillover networks are compared and analyzed from the full time period,the "stock market crash" period and the new crown epidemic period to explore the correlation and risk spillover effects of strategic metal and mineral stock prices.Finally,based on the analysis and empirical results,the conclusions are summarized and policy recommendations are proposed to prevent the risk transmission among strategic metal and mineral stock prices and to enhance the security and development of strategic metal and mineral resources.The main conclusions of this thesis are:(1)there is a significant risk spillover effect of strategic mineral resources stock prices among countries;(2)the new crown epidemic and other special periods,for this type of stock price inter-market risk acceptance has increased,there is a more obvious risk transmission between the internal;(3)through the spillover network,it is found that there is a risk center of the entire strategic mineral resources stock price system,for the risk acceptance and transmission have a strong influence.Based on the findings,this thesis proposes that there should be(1)a global awareness of the strategic mineral resources stock market,and the exploration and development of domestic strategic mineral resources and reserves should be strengthened to improve the self-sufficiency rate and guarantee capacity and promote the global allocation capacity of strategic mineral resources.(2)Investors should have basic industry knowledge before entering the stock market,which requires investors to rationally analyze the industry situation,learn to diversify portfolio investment,and be able to adjust the overall investment strategy in time when the stock market generates foreseen or visible huge fluctuations.(3)Establish and improve the mechanism of strategic mineral resources risk prevention,improve the information monitoring and early warning system,strengthen market regulation and emergency management;establish and improve the platform of information collection,analysis and publication;establish an effective risk assessment system and take corresponding measures to intervene or regulate according to the risk level,and improve the ability of monitoring and analysis of big data.