In recent years,governments at all levels have been paying close attention to the implementation of our national policy to protect the ecological environment,and the ecology has been greatly restored and the diversity of species has been increasing year by year.At the same time,the civil aviation industry has seen an increase in traffic,and the incidence of bird strikes has reached twice the rate of ten years ago,and it is likely to continue to increase with the civil aviation goals of the 14 th Five-Year Plan and the requirement of building green airports.The study of bird strike risk is important for the evaluation of bird strike risk and the reduction of bird strike risk in airports.Therefore,this thesis takes into account the aircraft operation law and bird behavior characteristics and conducts a bird strike risk study with the help of probabilistic severity model.Firstly,we studied the normative documents and research literature on bird strike at home and abroad,combined with the important data collected from two airports to analyze the bird strike patterns and causes,and identified several factors affecting the bird strike risk,and found that the results were different from the actual situation by the traditional bird strike risk evaluation method.The study of bird strike risk was divided into two levels of analysis,low altitude and high altitude,by using the "probability and severity model" to solve the problem.For the bird strike prevention in the low altitude level,the risk evaluation system was established and the weights of several factors in the comprehensive bird strike risk evaluation system were confirmed by DAHP and fuzzy mathematical method,and the results were validated that the comprehensive risk evaluation is more suitable for the actual situation of the airport.For the study of bird strike risk at high altitude level as a collision study,we model the bird strike problem based on Brownian motion of stochastic kinematics and propose a mathematical model.After solving the mathematical algorithm and performing Monte Carlo simulation by MATLAB,we verify that the conclusion is in line with the objective law,and propose a mathematical model for the ideal situation at high altitude and it is expected to realize the practical application in airports through radar equipment. |