The Impact Of Green Credit On Commercial Banks’ Risk Bearing Under The "Double Carbon" Goal

As China clearly put forward the goals of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral" in September 2020,China’s industrial structure began to change further.At the same time,the structure of credit supply of commercial banks supporting industrial development and upgrading of industrial structure is also changing.The proposal of the "double carbon" target indicates that commercial banks have more opportunities for the development of green credit business,and also indicates that the real economy can further achieve green,low-carbon and sustainable development.However,throughout the development of green credit in China’s banking industry,the growth rate of green credit in most banks and the proportion of green credit in the total loan balance still need to be improved.Due to the particularity of green credit projects,the enthusiasm of commercial banks to carry out green credit business still needs to be boosted;In addition,while the amount of green credit is increasing,bank risks are also increasing sharply.If these risks are not managed and controlled,it is likely to cause risks to accumulate,cross and derive continuously,ultimately damaging the interests of commercial banks,impeding the further development of green credit,and even interfering with the progress of industrial upgrading and the achievement of the "double carbon" goal.After combing the overall development of green credit in China’s commercial banks and the development of green credit in various commercial banks,30 listed commercial banks were selected as specific empirical research objects,and their panel data from 2012 to 2021 were used to analyze the impact of green credit business on their risk taking in the "dual carbon" background,Attempt to explore ways for commercial banks to effectively respond to the risks caused by green credit business,as well as measures that can effectively boost the enthusiasm of commercial banks to carry out green credit business.Specifically,firstly,the theory and research related to green credit and commercial bank risk were reviewed;Secondly,analyze the overall situation of green credit in China and the development of green credit in three major categories of commercial banks,and further analyze urban commercial banks with good development momentum in recent years as key bank categories.Sort out the changes in the balance of green credit in urban commercial banks and the proportion of green credit in key urban commercial banks in recent years,and summarize the main and fundamental problems for commercial banks to carry out green credit business;Once again,analyze the issue of how green credit affects commercial bank risks,and draw a specific impact mechanism diagram,thus proposing the empirical research hypothesis of this article;Finally,the corresponding model is constructed and the benchmark regression analysis,robustness test,mechanism analysis and heterogeneity analysis are carried out.Combined with the above,specific suggestions are put forward for the further development of green credit in China.The empirical results indicate that: firstly,carrying out green credit business has a positive effect on risk management of commercial banks.Increasing green credit investment by commercial banks can effectively suppress non-performing loan rates.Developing green credit business can generally effectively suppress commercial bank risks,and this risk suppression effect has a certain lag.In the early stage of green credit investment,this risk suppression effect is not significant,But as time goes on,its inhibitory effect on bank risk becomes increasingly evident;Secondly,green credit can have a restraining effect on commercial bank risks by influencing the profitability and reputation levels of banks;Thirdly,the inhibitory effect of green credit on the risks of commercial banks is heterogeneous,and compared to joint-stock commercial banks,the risk inhibitory effect on the six state-owned banks and urban commercial banks is more obvious.The above conclusions may to some extent boost the initiative of China’s commercial banks,especially urban commercial banks,to carry out green credit business,thereby accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of China’s economy and helping to achieve the "dual carbon" goal as scheduled.