Selection And Adaption Method Of Emergency Environment Accidents Caused By Hazardous Chemicals Based On Case-Based Reasoning

Improving the effectiveness and scientificity of environmental emergency management is necessary to adhere to the overall national security concept and safeguard the ecological environment security.Therefore,it is of great significance to explore the emergency decisionmaking methods for such incidents.In this paper,the selection and adjustment methods of emergency plans based on case-based reasoning and emergency response effects were studied to address the operability of emergency plans and the efficiency of generating emergency plans.The specific research contents are as follows:Aiming at the problem that there is no unified case knowledge management method for hazardous chemical emergencies,this paper sorts out the emergency management logic of hazardous chemical emergencies using literature analysis,and puts it under the framework of project management theory to carry out the knowledge system.The construction of the project includes five parts: scene modeling of emergencies,the establishment of an emergency problem database,hierarchical task decomposition of emergency plans,construction of an evaluation index system for emergency response effects,and experience summarization.For the problem that the emergency response effect has not been systematically considered in emergency decision-making,a corresponding emergency plan selection method is proposed,that is,the emergency plan ranking is obtained by combining the situation similarity of the emergency and the disposal effect of the emergency plan.First,when calculating the similarity of cases,based on the random forest algorithm and integrating expert knowledge,a weight solving method is constructed,and then the case retrieval method is used to obtain a set of similar cases;The adaptive group consensus adjustment algorithm obtains group evaluation opinions to make up for the lack of comprehensive knowledge and experience of a single decision-maker;thirdly,the comprehensive evaluation value of the plan is obtained by aggregating similarity and disposal effect,and the optimal plan ranking is generated.Considering that there is still room for optimization in the system recommendation scheme,to maximize the adaptation between the historical scheme and the target problem,an emergency scheme adjustment algorithm is given: establish an emergency effect-emergency problememergency action framework,and obtain the relationship between emergency effect and emergency action.The corresponding relationship is used to measure the impact of the plan adjustment on the disposal effect,and then the adjustment model of the emergency task is given to solve the adjusted current emergency environmental event response plan.And conduct case analysis for benzene series emergent environmental incidents.