The Impact Of Oil Price Uncertainty On Corporate Investment

With the increase of China’s crude oil import and the promotion of the market-oriented reform of oil product pricing,the impact of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment is important.Due to the unbalanced development of three industries and the different demand for crude oil and oil products,the impact of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment may be different among industries.This paper took Chinese A-share listed companies from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2020 as samples.Based on the impact of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment expenditure and investment efficiency,the uncertainty of oil price was divided into the uncertainty of rising oil price and the uncertainty of falling oil price according to the direction of oil price change.Then conduct comparative study among different industries.According to the change of the proportion of the three industries,the sample interval was divided into two groups.Finally,a comparative study has been made on the crude oil related industries and the crude oil unrelated industries in the secondary industry.Fixed effect model,grouped regression model,seemingly unrelated regression and contrastive analysis were used.The results show that the increase of oil price uncertainty will reduce the investment expenditure and improve the investment efficiency of enterprises.The increase of the uncertainty of rising oil price will reduce the investment expenditure and improve the investment efficiency of enterprises.The increase of the uncertainty of falling oil price will increase the investment expenditure and reduce the investment efficiency of enterprises.The uncertainty of rising and falling oil prices has a greater and more significant impact on corporate investment in the secondary industry than in the tertiary industry.During the period from 2012 to 2020 when the proportion of the tertiary industry was the largest,the impact of the uncertainty of rising and falling oil prices on corporate investment is greater and more significant than that during the period from 2005 to 2011 when the proportion of the secondary industry was the largest,indicating that the situation of high crude oil consumption in the secondary industry has not been changed.The uncertainty of rising and falling oil prices has a greater impact on corporate investment in oil related industries within the secondary industry.Finally,suggestions have been put forward from the perspectives of the country,industries and enterprises.