| With the rapid growth of global economy and the expansion of economic aggregate,the consumption of coal,oil and other energy has increased sharply,and the quality loss and pollution emission of environment have overdrawn the quality and benefit of rapid development.Countries around the world increasingly pay attention to the optimization of energy structure and carbon emission control.The pace of green development and energy transition has been accelerated,and the carbon emission trading market has emerged.Energy use is an important factor in carbon production,and carbon emissions are linked to energyrelated markets.In practical considerations,past carbon trading pilot projects in China have effectively alleviated local carbon emission intensity,and also outlined the framework for the construction of a unified national carbon market.With the gradual improvement of the national carbon market,pilot experience needs to be explored and referenced.This paper discusses the correlation between different pilot carbon prices and traditional energy stock index and new energy stock index,which has certain theoretical and practical significance for the deepening construction of national carbon market,the transformation and development of energy enterprises,and the investment planning of investors.Based on the relevant mechanism and theory of the carbon market,this paper studies the price relationship between the carbon emission trading pilot and the traditional energy and new energy stock market in China.Five pilot projects with active trading are selected,and China Securities Energy Index and China Securities New Energy Index are used as representative variables of traditional energy and new energy stock markets respectively.The following contents are studied: First,the path mechanism of interaction between carbon emission trading price and two types of energy stock price is theoretically analyzed.Secondly,based on the VAR model,the mean spillover relationship between the trading prices of carbon emission rights in different pilot projects and the two types of energy stock indexes is explored,and the mutual influence and persistence degree between markets are deeply measured from the perspective of impulse response and variance decomposition.Thirdly,d CC-GARCH model is used to measure the volatility spillover relationship between the trading prices of carbon emission permits in different pilot projects and the two types of energy stock indexes,and the dynamic correlation between market prices is time-varying.Pilot study the following conclusions: first,different carbon emissions trading price and the two types of relation between the amount of energy indexes exist different part of the pilot and two classes of shares with one-way mean spillover effect,mainly two types of energy price will affect the carbon price,the carbon price on two types of energy shares relatively small effect,these effects are present short memory process.The prices of the two markets are most influenced by themselves and depend very much on the transmission of their own market information,while the contribution of inter-market prices is very low.Second,there is a certain volatility spillover effect between the trading prices of carbon emission rights in each pilot project and the stock prices of the two types of energy.The dynamic correlation coefficient is small and the correlation is not strong enough.However,the change varies with time.Basically,the correlation between the trading price of each pilot carbon emission right and the stock price of new energy is stronger than that of each pilot carbon emission right and the stock price of traditional energy.In terms of volatility,the dynamic correlation coefficient between the prices of most pilot carbon emission permits and the two types of energy stock indexes is stable in a small range,and the development of markets is relatively synchronous.This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions: First,from the perspective of carbon emission trading market,orderly expand market control and emission,open participants and subject consciousness,moderately reduce quotas,innovate financial services to strengthen market price guidance,comprehensively consider and coordinate regional differences,and form diversified institutional arrangements.Second,from the perspective of energy,we should improve the construction of traditional energy stock market,promote the introduction of new energy policies,and accelerate the research and development of new energy.Third,in the Angle of the two markets,the top design,the overall consideration of the two markets effectively rule of market mechanisms,policy tools,each other into their respective price system with comprehensive consideration,the overall planning and arrangement reform roadmap,to explore new linkage path,to strengthen the carbon emissions trading market and the coordinated development of energy between the stock market.Investors should grasp the relationship between the market and the law of rational investment. |
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