| "Big health",as a new concept of all-round and whole-cycle emphasis on personal health,comes into being under the background of increasingly refined social needs.In2016,based on the national conditions,the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China made a detailed plan for the development of the cause from the aspects of guiding ideology,practical guidance and security system of people’s health in the future.On this basis,a series of national policies on promoting the construction of the big health industry came one after another.Under the positive influence of favorable policies,technical support and increased demand,the market size and growth rate of the big health industry have increased significantly,and the industry is very hot,thus attracting the attention of many investors.In this context,valuation research on enterprises in the big health industry will help to mobilize investors to think rationally and avoid blind investment.Therefore,this paper selects Yunnan Baiyao and Botanee,two listed companies in Yunnan Province that are also listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange,belong to the big health industry,and their main products are daily chemical products with strong medical technology background,as the research objects.Yunnan Baiyao’s assets are bigger than Botanee’s,but its price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio are much lower,and its stock price is nearly 1.5 times lower.On March 25,2021,Botanee was listed in Shenzhen Stock Exchange at the issue price of 47.33 yuan per share.After one year’s development,its closing price rose to 175.15 yuan per share on March 25,2022,with an increase of 270.06%.On December 15,1993,Yunnan Baiyao was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange at the issue price of 3.38 yuan per share.On March 25,2021,its closing price reached 126.26 yuan.One year later,on March 25,2022,its closing price dropped 35.8% to 81.06 yuan.In order to find out the essential reasons for the different external manifestation of the value of the two enterprises,this paper firstly analyzes the industry and industry environment of the two enterprises,compares the differences from the aspects of development history,development strategy,business model and operating conditions,and evaluates the enterprise value of Yunnan Baiyao and Botanee with the two-stage free cash flow discount model and the price-earnings ratio model.Based on the valuation results,the value drivers of the two enterprises are analyzed and the types of value drivers of the two enterprises are judged,and the degree of influence of each factor on enterprise value is quantified so as to provide reference suggestions for enterprise development.Based on the discounted free cash flow model and the price-earnings ratio model,the stock values of Yunnan Baiyao and Botanee are between 90.99-107.07 yuan and208.29-227.45 yuan respectively,which are both undervalued compared with the market price.From the two-dimensional sensitivity analysis of WACC and g,the stock values of the two enterprises are more sensitive to g,which represents the growth of the enterprises.From a relative point of view,Botanee has a higher growth rate than Yunnan Baiyao,so it is a growth-driven enterprise,while Yunnan Baiyao is a profit-driven enterprise with a higher absolute free cash flow.It can be concluded that compared with profit driving factors,when growth factors have a more significant impact on enterprise value,the higher the proportion of growth-driven enterprise value,the more substantial increase in enterprise value.In this case,the increase effect of enterprise value brought by profit-driven value ratio is smaller than that brought by growth.However,when the proportion of growth-driven enterprise value is higher than a certain range,enterprises sacrifice profits in order to maintain rapid growth,which will make the enterprise value increase slowly or even destroy the enterprise value.Although the free cash flow of Botanee is very low or even negative,the value improvement brought by its rapid profit growth is much higher than that of Yunnan Baiyao with positive free cash flow but slow profit growth.This also explains the difference in the stock market performance between Yunnan Baiyao and Botanee during March 25,2021-March 25,2022.Based on the perspective of "profit" and "growth",based on the value evaluation process and evaluation results of Yunnan Baiyao and Botanee,this paper quantifies the impact of "profitability" and "growth ability" on enterprise value through sensitivity analysis and enterprise value-driven type judgment,so as to provide a basis for enterprises to realize value enhancement.At the same time,a set of framework is summarized to determine the value driving types of corresponding two or more enterprises in various industries,to help enterprises strengthen the awareness of industry cycle and forward-looking strategic awareness,to promote enterprises to guide the increase of enterprise value and transformation growth with more scientific and reasonable management strategies,and to make up for the gaps in relevant research,which is the embodiment of the innovation of this paper. |
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