Research On Purchasing Decision Of Ferromolybdenum In Z Enterprise Based On Price Prediction Model

Ferro-molybdenum is a kind of important strategic metals,also an essential raw material for steel and foundry industry to improve steel organization and improve product performance.Due to its oligopoly industry at both ends of supply and demand,coupled with the influence of policy and international situation,the price fluctuation in recent 5 years is more than 30%.Z Company is a tool steel production enterprise,and Ferro-molybdenum accounts for more than 20% of its raw material procurement cost.The large fluctuation of Ferro-molybdenum price has caused a huge impact on the production and operation stability of Z Company.To research the rules of Ferro molybdenum price fluctuation according to Z Company’s procurement characteristics,make a suitable procurement decision scheme for Z Company so as to reduce the comprehensive procurement cost,which has decisive effect to ensure the stability of production and management of the company.In order to solve the above problems,this paper firstly analyzes the Ferro-molybdenum market information of Z Company and the influencing factors of Ferro-molybdenum price.According to the characteristics of Ferro-molybdenum price fluctuation,the paper introduces autoregressive neural network to establish the monthly price forecast model and daily price forecast model of Z Company.Then,according to the monthly price and daily price of Ferromolybdenum predicted by the model in this paper and other influencing factors of purchasing decision of Z Company,taking the lowest comprehensive procurement cost as the decisionmaking purpose,completed the distribution of Ferro-molybdenum monthly purchase quantity and the determination of monthly purchase nodes of Z Company.The rolling decision-making strategy was implemented to formulate the procurement decision-making scheme of Z Company.Finally,according to the characteristics of Z Company made the procurement decision scheme,which is aiming at continuous improvement & perfection,and form the PDCA cycle.In this paper,by analyzing the purchasing decision-making environment of Ferromolybdenum in Z Comany,exploring the price fluctuation rule of Ferro-molybdenum,and formulating the price fluctuation model suitable for Z Company.According to the price fluctuation interval,a practical purchasing decision model of Z Company is established,and the applicability of autoregressive neural network in the long and short term price prediction of Ferro-molybdenum is proved,and the rolling purchasing decision scheme is innovatively proposed to solve the problem of decision-making with uncertain factors.It not only solves the practical problem of Ferro-molybdenum purchasing decision of Z Company,but also expands the research idea of purchasing decision of bulk raw materials.