Study On The Potential Forecasting And Benefit Of Electric Energy Substitution In China Under The Background Of Double Carbon

The goal of "double carbon" has accelerated the development of China’s energy structure towards cleaner production and electrification of consumption.The implementation of electric energy substitution can increase the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption,give play to the advantages of clean and green electric energy,and optimize the energy consumption structure,so it has been widely concerned.Predicting the theoretical and practical potential of electric energy substitution and exploring the benefit distribution of electric energy substitution from the perspective of multi-party cooperation can serve to promote the process of electric energy substitution,help to provide a basis for power planning and benefit distribution,and have certain research value and practical significance.Firstly,the level of electrification and the development status of electric energy substitution in China are analyzed.Three indicators,the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption,the proportion of power generation energy in primary energy consumption and the consumption of electricity per unit GDP,are selected to measure the national electrification level at the national level.The electrification levels of three high energy-consuming industries,namely industry,construction and transportation,are studied respectively.The electrification level of construction is the highest,and that of transportation is the lowest.Then,from the perspective of policy support and technology application,the development status of electric energy substitution is analyzed,and three business models of the initial practice of electric energy substitution are explored,and the implementation benefits of typical cases of electric energy substitution at this stage are analyzed.Secondly,the theoretical potential of electric energy substitution in China from 2023 to 2025 is predicted.Based on the exponential smoothing method,this paper sets two scenarios,namely,energy types and terminal industries,and constructs theoretical potential prediction models under the two scenarios,respectively,to predict the terminal consumption of coal,oil and natural gas in China from 2023 to 2025 and the terminal energy consumption of various industries,and then obtains the theoretical potential value of electric energy substitution of coal,oil and natural gas in China from 2023 to 2025 by using the equivalent calorific value substitution method.Then,based on the particle swarm optimization support vector machine model,the actual potential of electric energy substitution is predicted.This paper analyzes and quantifies the influencing factors and actual potential of electric energy substitution,constructs a particle swarm optimization support vector machine model,optimizes the parameters of the support vector machine by using the global optimization of particle swarm optimization,and then selects Chinese historical data as model training samples to train and test the optimization model,which verifies the effectiveness of the model.Then,it uses curve estimation regression analysis method to predict the influencing factors from 2023 to 2030,and inputs them into the model.After iterative calculation,it gets many influencing factors in China from 2023 to 2030.Finally,in order to study the benefit optimization of the electric energy substitution project and how to allocate it reasonably among the participants,the benefit characteristic functions of the government,users and power grid companies participating in the electric energy substitution in two modes of individual action and cooperation are analyzed and constructed,and the benefit optimization model based on the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is constructed to optimize the benefit of the electric energy substitution project in the multi-party cooperative participation scenario,and the Shapley value method is used to allocate the benefits of the participants reasonably.Then,taking the electric heating project of the northern workshop as an example,it is concluded that the participation of the three parties can significantly increase the overall income of the project,and the income of all parties is also improved,which proves the effectiveness of the cooperative game optimization model and distribution method.