| The rapid development and large-scale application of photovoltaic(PV)is an important measure to achieve the "carbon neutrality and peak carbon emissions" strategy.In 2021,General Secretary Xi Jinping announced at the Biodiversity Conference that China will vigorously develop renewable energy and accelerate the planning and construction of large-scale PV projects.The installed capacity of PV in China was 306 GW in 2021,with an expected annual increase of 70-90 GW.The installed capacity is expected to exceed 1000 GW by 2030 and 2000 GW by 2050,which is more than seven times the current installed capacity.However,the lifespan of PV modules is typically 25-30 years,and when they reach the end of their operational lifespan,China will face a large number of module disposal problems.PV,as emerging solid waste with dual attributes of resource and environmental hazards,if improperly disposed of,can cause strategic resource waste,economic losses,occupation of a large amount of land,and irreversible environmental pollution problems such as heavy metal leakage and soil and water source contamination,posing multiple threats to the ecological environment.Therefore,in order to address the resource and environmental issues caused by waste PV modules,enhance the sustainability of the supply chain,and launch specific and effective recycling actions in a timely manner,it is urgent to enhance our understanding of key information such as the scale,trend,distribution,and composition of PV waste,and conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the resource,environmental,and economic benefits of retired PV modules under different waste management strategies.To address the above problems,first and foremost,this study built an inventory of renewable energy plants from 2010-2019,and evaluates the installed PV capacity in China in 2050 based on a high spatial and temporal resolution power system optimization model.Furthermore,the study scientifically evaluates the PV waste generation in China from 2020 to 2050 by considering the dynamic lifetime of PV and module weight parameters under the technological progress.Finally,a number of circular economy scenarios were developed to explore the differences in resource,environmental and economic benefits under different waste management strategies.The research findings indicate that:(1)by 2050,the cumulative amount of EoL PV modules in China will fluctuate between 16 and 26 million tons,including significant amounts of metal and non-metal materials.Potential hotspots for PV waste exist in all cities,posing significant challenges to waste management.(2)The PV waste presents a trend of fluctuating growth,and the challenges of waste vary significantly in time and space.The hotspots of PV plant decommissioning first appear in Northwest around 2034,then spread to central and eastern regions around 2040,such as Shandong and Jiangsu.(3)Different circular economy measures can effectively enhance the benefits of EoL PV modules in terms of resources,environment,and economy.Strengthening front-end control of waste before 2035 can achieve the best short-term effects,reducing the resource loss caused by PV waste by 5%.Strengthening end-of-life treatment can significantly increase the amount of PV module recycling and corresponding environmental and economic benefits.Based on the research findings,it is recommended to scientifically evaluate the generation of PV waste,and effectively combine "end-of-life treatment" with "front-end control".It is also suggested to promote the "electronic label" system in advance,construct a PV life cycle traceability supervision system,and advance planning for the PV recycling supervision system and capacity building of supporting waste disposal and utilization facilities.Furthermore,setting up regionally differentiated waste management measures can help promote the green and high-quality development of China’s PV industry. |
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