With the acceleration of global industrialization,the problem of carbon emissions has become increasingly prominent.How to achieve sustainable economic development has become the core issue of economic development.As the most important financial means of green environmental protection industry,green finance has played an important role in promoting the green and sustainable development of social economy.In the process of the development of green credit,its credit risk has gradually emerged under the influence of internal and external factors.The key to the development of green credit is how to effectively prevent the losses caused by green credit.As the issuing carrier of green credit,commercial banks should strengthen the management of green credit risk and build and improve a scientific green credit risk early warning system,which is of great significance to the development of the industry.Based on the equator principle,sustainable development theory,information asymmetry theory and corporate social responsibility theory,this paper expounds the concepts of green credit,credit risk and green credit early warning;This paper analyzes the development and status quo of green credit in China’s commercial banks and the status quo of green credit risk early warning.On this basis,this paper analyzes the direct and indirect factors that affect the green credit risk of commercial banks,and studies how to build a green credit risk early warning system for commercial banks.This paper selects the data of the banking business level and the green business level of four listed commercial banks,including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China,China Construction Bank,China Merchants Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for eight years,first uses the factor analysis method to reduce the dimension of the data of the banking business level,and then combines and weights the screened public factors and the indicators of the green business level,and then confirms the risk value based on the grey correlation analysis method,and establishes the green credit risk early warning indicator system of commercial banks,And carry out empirical test.The empirical results show that the grey correlation coefficient of the four sample banks from 2013 to2020 is lower than the risk warning value,and China Merchants Bank has the best performance,which shows that the green credit early warning system established in accordance with the "Equator Principles" can effectively conduct risk analysis and help commercial banks reduce the environmental risk of projects by screening the risks of green financial projects.According to the empirical analysis,the following research conclusions are drawn: building an effective risk early warning system,strict supervision of commercial banks on project approval,review and other links,and under the perfect green financial market access mechanism,can effectively control the green credit risk.Through the demonstration and research on building the green credit risk early warning system of commercial banks,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:At the government level,build the external environmental mechanism of green credit for commercial banks,improve the construction of the legal system of green credit,improve the environmental information disclosure mechanism,and improve the incentive and guidance system of green finance.Establish a scientific and complete risk prevention and control and early warning system for green credit projects at the bank level;Actively establish an information sharing mechanism,improve the internal risk response system of commercial banks,and improve the credit rating system of commercial banks;We will strengthen the innovation of green financial products and financing models,and synchronize development with early warning and control.The innovation of this paper is to build a more feasible green credit risk early warning model based on the Equator principle,using factor analysis method and grey correlation analysis method,by adding green business-level data and bank-level data,and at the same time reduce the dimension of the data at the bank level,so that the early warning system has better operability and applicability. |