Linji Corrosion Pipeline Remaining Life Prediction

Since the rapid development of my country’s social economy,my country’s energy distribution is extremely uneven,my country’s oil and gas pipeline is constantly increasing,although my country’s construction process and materials have been achieved Advance,but it is still unable to avoid risk issues,strengthen pipeline risk assessment is necessary.In the process of risk assessment of the pipeline,the remaining life evaluation is critical.Through reasonable residual life evaluations,it is conducive to guiding the staff to formulate reasonable measures,and the pipelines are timely maintenance and replacement,thereby making the safety of the pipeline.In response to the remaining life of the pipe,this study was based on the Linji pipeline,and the following three aspects were carried out:（1）From the deterioration law of the corrosion pipe,the changes in the change of the remaining life of the pipeline are theoretically studied.Through the study,the degradation process of pipeline life can be mainly divided into three stages,first,in the initial stage of the use of pipelines,The degradation curve is relatively stable,which proves that the performance of the pipeline in this stage is relatively stable;secondly,the probability of failure issues will have increased significantly in the medium-term stage of pipeline production,and its performance has changed significantly.Therefore,The phase is defined as a uniform degradation period;in the later stage of the pipeline used,the slope of the degradation curve is basically in the form of an index,which proves that the probability of failure of the pipeline operation is significantly increased;（2）The multivariate statistical method is introduced,and the factors affecting the remaining life of the pipeline are fully reasonable.By using the PCA and KPCA algorithms,it has been analyzed.Due to the PCA algorithm has certain limitations,the residual life of the pipe is not satisfied.The method of use of the algorithm,therefore,the analysis results of the KPCA algorithm are more accurate,and the analysis found,the temperature,H₂S content,and the CO₂concentration belong to the main influencing factors of the remaining life of the pipeline;（3）Bayesian survival theory and finite element theory are introduced.First,the Bayesian survival theory model based on generalized extreme value distribution is constructed,the parameters in the model are reasonably optimized by bas algorithm,and the real corrosion pit depth data of Linji pipeline are used to predict.It is found that the remaining life of the pipeline given in the service evaluation is 12.97 years,Compared with the actual remaining prediction results for 13.10 years,the error of the prediction results is 1.0023%;The second is to establish the corrosion defect model by using the finite element analysis method,test its yield strength by constantly changing the input analog quantity,and then determine the residual strength and minimum residual wall thickness of corrosion defects.The residual life of Linji corroded pipeline is predicted by wall thickness method.The result is 14.36 years and the error result is9.6923%;Finally,by comparing the two data,it is found that the former is more suitable for the actual site.