Research On Risk Assessment Method Of Steel Catenary Riser Based On Information Fusion

The steel catenary riser has been widely used and promoted because of its high economy and strong practicability.The steel catenary riser is an important part of connecting the floating production platform and the underwater production system.It is also one of the weakest parts in the offshore oil and gas development system.Liquid load,under the action of two kinds of loads,risers often have various forms of structural failure.To this end,this paper simulates the multi-sensor information of the steel catenary riser monitoring system to carry out the research on the risk assessment method of the steel catenary riser based on information fusion.The main research content and results include:This paper proposes a risk assessment method for steel catenary risers based on information fusion.The first step is to use the improved FMEA method to semi-quantitatively evaluate the steel catenary riser,which solves the problem of the construction of the information fusion identification frame.Furthermore,combining the advantages of evidence theory and intuitionistic fuzzy set theory,a decision-level information fusion algorithm is proposed to quantitatively evaluate the risk of steel catenary risers.The algorithm constructs a basic probability function(BPA)through known information;uses the obtained BPA function to construct an intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision matrix to evaluate the dynamic reliability of the evidence body;reduces the conflict between the evidence,and finally realizes the risk through decision fusion evaluate.The failure factor model of the steel catenary riser is established,and the failure modes caused by many failure factors are summarized.The fuzzy evidence is used to improve the FMEA method to analyze the different failure modes of the steel catenary riser,and the semiquantitative assessment of risk identification of steel catenary riser is completed.The risk assessment of the steel catenary riser is carried out.Taking the high-risk failure mode derived from the risk identification of the steel catenary riser as an example,three tropical cyclones of different periods in the South China Sea are selected as environmental loads.Based on the sensor data of the steel catenary riser obtained in the Orca Flex simulation environment,the information is fused through the proposed information Algorithm completes risk assessment of steel catenary riser and gives risk control strategy.