Application Of Interval Two-stage Planning Method Based On Factorial Analysis In Industrial Air Pollution Management

Industrial activities are usually the main cause of air pollution,SO₂,NO_X and particulate matter and other pollutants in the industrial atmosphere not only endanger the ecological environment,pose a great threat to human health,and its treatment and disposal process has increased considerable economic costs to enterprises.At present,industrial air pollution shows a trend of large total emissions and high intensity,economic growth and pollutant emissions have not yet been decoupled,and they are still facing the contradiction between pollutant emission reduction and economic development.Many industrial plants pay attention to investment costs and operating costs when choosing pollutant treatment processes in the early stage of construction,and pay no attention to factors such as pollutant production,environmental policies and the dynamic relationship between them,resulting in prominent phenomena such as pollutants exceeding standards and idle processing capacity,which is not conducive to air quality protection and restricts the development of enterprises.Industrial air pollution management is subject to economic,policy and technical conditions,and it is impossible to achieve one-time and for all in the absolute sense.Through systematic analysis,optimizing the choice of pollutant treatment process in the industry,weighing the relationship between economy and environmental protection,maximizing environmental benefits,minimizing management costs,and ensuring the benign development of the industry are the key issues that need to be solved urgently.In this study,a factorial analysis based interval two-stage stochastic programming（FITSP）was constructed for industrial air pollution management.FITSP can deal with intervals,probability uncertainties,and reduce the risk of subjective decisions and inaccurate parameters.Two-stage decision-making with recourse ideology to compensate for the losses caused by one-stage decision-making.With the help of factorial analysis method,the influence of uncertain factors on model output is revealed.FITSP is applied to an industrial zone in Ankang City,taking the cost optimization of SO₂,NO_X and particulate matter treatment systems emitted by brick and cement plants in the research area as the research goal,screening the combination of pollutant treatment processes,quantifying the influence of the main effects and interaction effects of uncertainties on system output,and providing scientific and reasonable decision support for decision makers.（1）The combination of processes with different levels of pollutant treatment efficiency is better than choosing any one of the pollutant treatment processes alone.The waste gas treatment process of the brick factory is combined with the double-alkali+limestone-gypsum（the third planning period）+selective non-catalytic reduction+electrostatic precipitation.The waste gas treatment process of cement plant is combined with double-alkali+selective non-catalytic reduction+selective catalytic reduction（third planning period）+electrostatic precipitation+bag filter（second and third planning periods）.（2）Planning cannot be based solely on current costs.Although the low-cost and inefficient treatment measures meet the current environmental protection requirements at a lower cost,they may face penalties for violating environmental protection requirements in the later stage,and if they want to reduce operating costs,they will be subject to high environmental penalties.When the low-cost and inefficient pollutant treatment process reaches the upper limit of efficiency,cost and benefit balance,the high-cost and high-efficiency pollutant treatment process is enabled.With the increase of production capacity and environmental protection,inefficient pollutant treatment processes will gradually be replaced by high-efficiency pollutant treatment processes.（3）The main effect and interaction response are contained in the waste gas desulfurization of brick factory,the desalination of waste gas of cement plant,and the dust removal system cement.The influence of uncertainty factors on the model output in different systems is different,and the efficiency of pollutant treatment process and industry standard are negative effects,and the interaction of pollutant treatment processes and pollutant treatment processes and industry standards is positive.The analysis results show that the contribution of parameters to the model output are the inefficient treatment process（64.88%-77.88%）,the high efficiency treatment process（7.87%-16.22%）,the high and low efficiency treatment process combination（0.003%-16.22%）,the industry emission standard（0%-3.09%）,and the interaction effect between the treatment process and the industry emission standard（0%-2.16%）.