Research On Overdue Loan Risk From The Perspective Of Corporate Mergers And Acquisition

Mergers and acquisitions are an effective means for companies to increase their market share,increase the scale of production and sales,enhance their competitiveness and complete their strategic transformation.In the context of the "M&A frenzy",the M&A approach is particularly important.Although the theoretical and practical circles have been promoting the cooperative financing strategy,in practice,due to the imperfect equity financing environment in China’s capital market,limited equity financing channels,and the excessive use of financial leverage by enterprises,many enterprises choose the aggressive financing strategy during M&A,and the phenomenon of short loans and long investments is becoming more and more common.Under the current economic downward pressure,financial deleveraging has been gradually strengthened,and the liquidity of most enterprises has been restricted,especially those operating with debt,leading to an increasing number of enterprises in the market exploding with huge overdue loans,and the market has become more and more concerned about the risk of overdue loans.The case company selected for this thesis is Gene Nickel,which is a high-profile domestic state-owned enterprise in the non-ferrous metal mining and processing industry,and its development is highly anticipated.In the early days of its IPO,it was known as the "No.1stock in the nickel industry",but since it started to adopt an overseas M&A strategy in 2009,it has rapidly annexed several large overseas mines and shifted its focus to overseas market operations.While the market praised its bold M&A actions,Gene Nickel’s profitability and operational efficiency did not improve,and its net profit declined rapidly.In 2015,the company was ST’d,with a large number of overdue loans,a sharp drop in share price,high losses and lawsuits filed by several financial institutions.In this thesis,we firstly sort out the timeline of overdue borrowings of Gien Nickel and analyze the market reactions caused by overdue borrowings to the company;secondly,we measure the overdue borrowing risk under M&A of the company and apply the Z-SCORE model based on financial indicators and the KMV model with less financial impact respectively,and compare and analyze the assessment results of these two models to study the Finally,we analyze the mechanism of corporate M&A affecting the risk of overdue borrowing from three perspectives: the debt level,the capital chain situation and the operating condition of the enterprise.The following conclusions are drawn: due to the inappropriate financing and payment methods of M&A and the low efficiency of internal integration,the debt pressure,tight capital chain and operational risks of Gene Nickel have increased,and the need to repay a large amount of short-term loans has intensified,while the low cash holdings and the reduced profitability of Gene Nickel have not allowed the company to repay the loans by earning profits,leading to the increased risk of overdue loans.The application value of this thesis is: on the one hand,to analyze the possible overdue borrowing risk and its causes for the M&A market players,so that they can have a better consideration of the overdue borrowing risk and take corresponding countermeasures to reasonably reduce the risk and improve the business ability of the enterprise;on the other hand,to provide early warning signals to the market and related investors from the analysis of the causes of the increased overdue borrowing risk.On the other hand,the analysis of the reasons for the increase of overdue loan risk provides early warning signals to the market and relevant investors so that they can make behaviors and decisions in the investment process that are conducive to maximizing their own interests.