Research On Impact Of Temperature Change On Cardiovascular Disease And Preventive Management

In recent years,climate change has great impact on human health,including cardiovascular disease.The situation of cardiovascular disease is severe in China,its curative expenditure and mortality rank first among all diseases,resulting in heavy pressure on the public health and medical insurance fund.The research aims to explore the association between apparent temperature and hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease and further makes a prediction about hospitalizations based on the data form New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme and meteorological data in Zhangye,in order to provide countermeasures and suggestions for the protection of cardiovascular disease and allocation of medical resources and insurance fund.Firstly,the research analyzes the previous literatures to clarify the background,significance and methods;secondly,describes the relevant concepts and theoretical basis;thirdly,describes the research design idea and processes data;then constructs a distributed lag nonlinear model to explore the lag effects of apparent temperature on cardiovascular disease hospitalizations for the entire population and gender subgroups;on this basis,the Neural Prophet model was constructed and apparent temperature was included as an exogenous variable to conduct the prediction research about hospitalizations,so as to explore the prediction ability of the model and trend of cardiovascular disease hospitalizations.The main findings of the research are as follows:(1)The numbers of cardiovascular disease hospitalizations have increased year by year,most of the patients choose the county and township medical institute for treatment,the proportion of patients with cardiovascular disease in Minle county is the largest,followed by Ganzhou District,Linze County,Shandan County and Gaotai County,Sunan County accounts for the least;(2)Both low and high apparent temperature have impact on cardiovascular disease.The impact of low apparent temperature is more harmful with a longer lag period while the impact of high apparent temperature is more acute.The male and female subgroup was more susceptible to extreme and moderate cold apparent temperature,respectively;(3)The accuracy of Neural Prophet model for prediction about cardiovascular disease hospitalizations in Zhangye can up to 91.04%,the peak and low peak periods of hospitalizations are approximately March and October every year,respectively.The Spring Festival holiday has great impact on cardiovascular disease hospitalizations,and the effect of apparent temperature on cardiovascular disease hospitalizations shows periodic changes;(4)Based on the empirical analysis,the research proposes countermeasures and suggestions on preventing cardiovascular diseases,reasonably allocating curative resources and medical insurance fund in rural areas of Zhangye.