Foresight Research On Emerging Technologies In Chemical Reconnaissance

In the increasingly complex international security situation,chemical security problems of various forms and scales,such as hazardous chemical emergencies,personal assassination or terrorist activities with toxic and harmful chemicals or even chemical weapons,occur frequently,and the harm to the public chemical security is growing.As a crucial building block response to public chemical safety incidents,the related technologies in chemical reconnaissance play a vital role in coping with chemical emergencies and preservation of public chemical security.How to optimize the allocation of resources and improve the level and capability of chemical reconnaissance has become an important realistic problem to be considered at present.Meanwhile,as a significant means to grasp the development trend of science and technology and support decision making,technology foresight is playing a more and more active role in improving technological competitiveness and conducting strategic layouts.Therefore,focusing on the field of chemical reconnaissance,starting from the two aspects of strategy and technology development,this paper tries to explore the foresight research of emerging technologies in this field,in order to grasp the development status and trend of emerging technologies in chemical reconnaissance,and propose the development priorities of emerging technologies in this field,which will provide information support and reference for future technological innovation and development in the field of chemical reconnaissance.Firstly,based on the correlation between science and technology,this paper constructed a research model of emerging technology topics identification from the perspective of science and technology correlation by using two data sources,papers and patents,and carried out empirical analysis with chemical reconnaissance field.Secondly,scientific econometric analysis based on literature was conducted on the identified emerging technology topics,to explore the research status and hotspots of emerging technology topics in the field of chemical reconnaissance,and provide reference for subsequent related research.Thirdly,combined with the identification of emerging technology topics and the Delphi method,the technology foresight sub-field and the key technology determination framework were proposed,and the index system of technology foresight in chemical reconnaissance was constructed.Fifteen experts were invited to carry out two rounds of Delphi survey,and the foresight analysis of emerging technologies in chemical reconnaissance was conducted.Based on the analysis results,a technical roadmap for layout planning of emerging technologies in chemical reconnaissance field was drawn.Finally,based on the experience of developing chemical reconnaissance technology in the international community,some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to promote the technological development in chemical reconnaissance in China.The findings show that the emerging technology topics identification research model proposed in this paper improves and supplements the existing emerging technology topics identification methods;the emerging technology foresight activities carried out can make up for the shortcomings of lack of foresight in current technology foreseeing to a certain extent and provide a new perspective and a thought for reference for the development of technology foresight.In the field of chemical reconnaissance,new colorimetric detection technology,new fluorescence detection technology,biological detection technology,interdisciplinary technology,miniaturization technology and other emerging technologies will have a great development and application prospect in the future.