An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Low-carbon City Pilot Policy On China’s Power Consumption

In September 2020,at the general debate of the 75 th United Nations General Assembly,Xi proposed that China’s carbon dioxide emissions should reach a peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.In order to realize the commitment of carbon emission reduction,China has implemented a series of measures to promote the development of low-carbon economy,including the pilot policy of low-carbon cities implemented throughout the country since 2010.From the perspective of exploring replicable low-carbon policies and improving China’s low-carbon development policies,this policy is of great significance to slow down the increase of China’s carbon emissions and realize China’s low-carbon development.From the perspective of energy consumption structure,the proportion of China’s power consumption in energy terminal consumption shows a trend of continuous increase.Due to the limitations of technology,resource endowment and other conditions,China’s power production is still dominated by thermal power generation at this stage,and the use of fossil energy is the main source of carbon dioxide emission.Therefore,from the perspective of energy conservation,reducing power consumption intensity and restraining power consumption have become an important basis for controlling carbon emissions.In this context,this thesis studies the impact of low-carbon city pilot policy on China’s power consumption.Firstly,this thesis combs and summarizes the relevant research literature on the pilot policies of low-carbon cities,power consumption and their relationship at home and abroad.Secondly,from the theoretical level,this thesis combs the theoretical basis of this thesis,and analyzes the mechanism of the impact of low-carbon city pilot policy on China’s power consumption from the two aspects of "technological innovation effect" and "industrial structure effect".At the same time,this thesis analyzes the development process of China’s low-carbon city pilot policy and the development status of China’s power consumption.After that,using the panel data of 211 prefecture level cities in China from2005 to 2016,this thesis identifies the policy effect of low-carbon city pilot from the perspective of total power consumption and power consumption intensity by constructing propensity score matching double difference model(PSM-DID),and further analyzes the heterogeneity of the policy effect in administrative level,resource endowment and initial power consumption level.Furthermore,by constructing the intermediary effect model,this thesis tests the mechanism of low-carbon city pilot policies affecting China’s power consumption from two aspects: Urban technological innovation and industrial structure adjustment.This thesis calculates the rebound effect of the second batch of low-carbon cities in China based on the Douglas function.Theoretical analysis and empirical test results show that: first,on the whole,the pilot policy of low-carbon cities can significantly reduce the intensity of China’s power consumption and inhibit the improvement of China’s power consumption level;First,there are significant differences in the impact of low-carbon city pilot policies on China’s power consumption in terms of administrative level,resource endowment and original power consumption level;Third,the impact of low-carbon city pilot policy on China’s power consumption is mainly realized through two channels: technological innovation and industrial structure;Fourth,there is a large power rebound effect in China’s low-carbon pilot cities,and the long-term power rebound effect of low-carbon pilot cities is greater than the short-term power rebound effect,and presents as a "reverse effect".Finally,based on the conclusions,this thesis puts forward relevant suggestions on the promotion of pilot policies of low-carbon cities in the future and the development of low-carbon economy in China.