Research On The Rare Earths Demand And Environmental Costs Of China’s Wind Power Development Consistent With The Carbon Neutrality Target

China has proposed to achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2060.More use of renewable energy to replace fossil energy is one of the most important measures to realize the transformation of "carbon neutral" energy system,and it is of great significance to actively carry out relevant research.Wind power generation is regarded as one of the key alternative technologies for fossil energy because of clean,low-carbon,short construction period,small footprint,and large installed potential.In recent years,China has actively promoted the development of wind power,and the installed capacity of wind power has grown rapidly.However,rare earths,the key production material of rare earth permanent magnet wind generator(one of the main utilization technologies in the future wind power market),will produce lots of pollutants,solid waste and radioactive residues in the process of mining and smelting,which will seriously pollute the soil,groundwater and farmland.Therefore,the development of wind power may come with significant environmental costs.In addition,the environmental problems of rare earth production may lead to strict environmental regulation on rare earth production and supply,aggravating the shortage of rare earth elements and hindering the development of wind power in China.Hence,it is necessary to quantify rare earth demands for carbon neutral wind power development,identify rare earth supply gaps,and assess the environmental costs of rare earth utilization for wind power development,so as to optimize and adjust the utilization structure of rare earth in wind power development and thereby promote the development of wind power in China scientifically.Given this,this study uses dynamic material flow analysis to explore the rare earth demand for wind power development in China under multiple carbon neutrality target scenarios.Then,scenario analysis method is used to predict the supply of rare earth in China’s wind power industry in the future,and the risk of rare earth shortage in wind power industry was further evaluated.Finally,the life cycle analysis is used to calculate the environmental impact of rare earth production and then is used to quantify the environmental costs caused by the development and consumption of rare earths by wind power in different scenarios.In addition,the differences in environmental costs between different rare earth elements are considered,and the environmental costs of the four rare earth elements,i.e.,neodymium,praseodymium,dysprosium,and terbium,are quantified.The study shows that:(1)In all "carbon neutral" scenarios,the amount of rare earth needed for wind power development exceeds the future supply of rare earth for wind power industry.The cumulative demand for rare earths in China’s wind power development from 2021 to 2060 is about 364,400 to 639,800 tons(including 265,000～451,600 tons of neodymium,66,200～112,900 tons of praseodymium,44,200～75,300 tons of dysprosium,33,100～56,400 tons of terbium);The supply of rare earths to the wind power industry is only 208,400 to 298,600 tons(including 159,800 to 217,200 tons of neodymium,39,700 to 5400 tons of praseodymium,11,200 to 15,300 tons of dysprosium,and 8,900 to 12,100 tons of terbium);The shortage of rare earths in the wind power industry is 81000～429000 tons(including 47700～291800 tons of Nd,12300～73200 tons of Pr,28900～64000 tons of Dy,and 21000～47500 tons of Te).(2)Meeting the needs of rare earth required for wind power development will bring huge environmental costs.For example,the demand for rare earths is expected to cause 45.687 to 70.585 million tons of carbon emissions.Considering the six environmental impact categories of abiotic depletion,global warming,human toxicity,photochemical oxidation,acidification and eutrophication,the cumulative environmental costs of rare earth utilization in wind power development is 78.40～140.15 billion yuan.(3)The supply of rare earths in the wind power industry will produce 19.1612～26.3593 million tons of carbon emissions,which is reduced by 11.4479～42.3791 million tons when the constraints of the actual supply capacity of rare earths are not considered.Considering the six environmental impact categories of abiotic depletion,global warming,human toxicity,photochemical oxidation,acidification and eutrophication,the cumulative environmental costs of rare earth demand in wind power industry is about 43.42～60.15 billion yuan.(4)The environmental impact of different rare earth elements is different.Specifically,the environmental impact of neodymium and praseodymium is 9.88～84.34%lower than that of dysprosium and terbium.Since the four rare earth metals required for NdFeB permanent magnets can be replaced with equal mass within a certain range,the Nd/Pr content in NdFeB permanent magnets can be used to replace the same content of dysprosium/terbium,so as to reduce the environmental impact of wind power development.Based on the above results,the following policy suggestions are put forward:(1)Reduce the environmental costs of rare earth production from both the production and consumption sides to ensure the sustainable supply of rare earths.(2)Attach importance to the recycling and utilization of rare earth,and reduce the risk of rare earth shortage in the wind power industry through the secondary supply caused by recycling and utilization(3)Reduce rare earth consumption in NdFeB permanent magnet manufacturing process by improving process efficiency and seeking replacement of rare earth elements.