| Hunchun city is located at the junction of China,North Korea and Russia.It is the"window of opening to the outside world"of Jilin Province,and also an important node of"China,North Korea,Russia and Mongolia"international passageway and"Ice Silk Road"in the"Belt and Road"initiative.It is of great significance to simulate and analyze the process of urban expansion in Hunchun city and evaluate the impact of urban expansion on regional ecosystem services,so as to fully reveal the process of urbanization,evaluate the environmental effect of urbanization and promote regional sustainable development.At present,under the pressure of the construction of Hunchun Marine economic development demonstration zone and the restriction of northeast Tiger and Leopard National Park,there are few studies on the impact of urban expansion on ecosystem services in Hunchun.Therefore,based on multi-source remote sensing data and geographic information system auxiliary data,this paper uses LUSD-urban(Land Use Scenario Dynamics)model to simulate the urban expansion process of Hunchun city under different scenarios from 2020 to 2050.To evaluate the impact of historical and future urban expansion process on regional ecosystem services,and to explore the sustainable path of urban expansion for the construction of Hunchun Marine economy demonstration area and the development of Northeast Tiger and Leopard National Park.The main work and findings of this study are as follows.(1)Quantified the urban land expansion process in Hunchun city from 1988 to2020 at multiple scales,and simulated the future urban expansion process from 2020to 2050 based on LUSD-urban.The results showed that the urban land area increased from 4137.21 hm~2in 1988 to 11726.37 hm~2in 2020,and the urban land area increased by 183.44%with an annual growth rate of 3.31%,and the proportion of urban land area increased from 0.81%to 2.31%.The newly added urban land was mainly concentrated in Yingan Town and the cooperation zone,accounting for 32.90%and13.95%of the total area of newly added urban land in The whole region.From 2020to 2050,the urban land area will increase to 19,445.58-30348.99 hm~2under different scenarios,and the urban land area will increase by 65.83%-158.81%,with an annual growth rate of 0.01%-0.19%,and the proportion of urban land in the total area of the whole region will increase to 3.83%-5.97%.In different scenarios of urban expansion,the newly added urban land came from Yingan Town and Banshi Town,accounting for 25.81-31.76%and 12.10%-15.20%of the newly added urban land area in the whole region.(2)The spatial pattern of ecosystem services in Hunchun city was quantified.Based on remote sensing data,precipitation data and socio-economic statistics data,the spatial pattern of ecosystem services in Hunchun city in 1988 was quantified.The results showed that there were significant spatial differences in carbon storage,food production,air purification and water conservation services.In 1988,the grain production of the whole region was 277.35×10~3t t,showing a spatial pattern of high in the west and low in the east.Meanwhile,the total amount of carbon storage,air purification and water conservation was 128391.54×10~3t、28.17×10~3t and358587.16×10~3t,respectively.The spatial pattern of these three ecosystem services was high in the east and low in the west.(3)Carbon storage,food production,air purification and water conservation services will be lost under the impact of future urban expansion.From 1988 to 2020,urban expansion will reduce carbon storage by 671.30×10~3t,grain production by26.23×10~3t,air purification by 211.66 t and water conservation by 4124.55×10~3t,respectively.The average annual loss was 21.08×10~3t,0.82×10~3t,6.61 t and128.89×10~3t.The urban expansion process from 2020 to 2050 will continue to cause loss of ecosystem services.Under the influence of different scenarios of urban expansion in the future,Carbon storage,grain production,air purification and water conservation will decrease by 325.11×10~3-833.24×10~3t,44.14×10~3-109.74×10~3t,7.69-19.40 t and 3522.16×10~3-8571.89×10~3t,respectively.The average annual loss was 10.84×10~3-27.46×10~3t,1.47×10~3-3.66×10~3t,2.56×6.47 t and 117.41×10~3-285.73×10~3t.(4)Urban land occupation of dry and paddy fields is an important cause of future loss of ecosystem services.From 2020 to 2050,the areas occupied by urban expansion in dry and paddy fields under different scenarios are 3250.89-10395.90hm~2and 4326.75-7702.56 hm~2,accounting for 42.11%-55.82%and 41.36%-56.05%of the total area of newly added urban land.Therefore,it is suggested that in the future urbanization process of Hunchun City,attention should be paid to the protection of dry and paddy fields,which can not only guarantee the grain yield to a certain extent,but also maintain and protect the regional ecosystem services and promote the sustainable development of the region. |
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