Multi-scenario Simulation And Optimition Strategy Research On The Impact Of Land Spatial Regulation On Carbon Storage

The formulation and improvement of supporting policies for the Major Function Oriented Zone planning and creating a win-win situation for economic development and ecological environmental protection are important contents of the report of the Nineteenth National Congress.The Major Function Oriented Zone planning is an important spatial regulation tool for the Chinese government to achieve the dual goals of land space development optimization and protection.Among them,different functional zones implement differentiated policies and rationally adjust the land use structure,but this will undoubtedly lead to drastic changes in land use and ecosystem services in the future.In order to better evaluate and improve the implementation of the existing Major Function Oriented Zone planning,coordinate the contradiction between economic development and ecological environmental protection,this study takes Nanning as an example,and uses the CLUMondo model to simulate the land use change trends of Nanning under three different scenarios of natural trend,economic development and ecological protection in 2030.Then,the In VEST model was coupled to evaluate the impact of land use change on carbon storage under the regulation of Major Function Oriented Zone planning,and the optimal development strategies of land space were proposed.The results show that:(1)From 2010 to 2015,land use in Nanning changed frequently and significantly.On the whole,construction land shows a rapid growth trend,with an increase of 13027 hectares.Cultivated land and forest land decreased significantly,reducing by 6043 hectares and 5577 hectares,respectively.Among them,the characteristics of land use change in three different functional zones are similar to the overall change in Nanning.A large increase in construction land has occupied a large amount of cultivated land and forest land.(2)From 2015 to 2030,under the natural trend scenario,Nanning generally continued the change trend from 2010 to 2015,that is,construction land expanded rapidly,and cultivated land and forest land continued to decrease.Under the economic development scenario,Nanning’s overall construction land is growing at the fastest rate.Under the ecological protection scenario,Nanning’s overall construction land expansion rate is slower than the previous two scenarios,and cultivated land and forest land have increased.(3)From the perspective of different functional zones,from 2015 to 2030,under the natural trend scenario,construction land in three different functional zones continued to increase.Under the economic development scenario,construction land in key development zone has the fastest growth rate,higher than the other two functional zones.Under the ecological protection scenario,the growth rate of construction land in key development zone has slowed down,the cultivated land in the agricultural production zone has been effectively protected,and it has begun to increase.The forest land in key ecological function zone has increased significantly.(4)From 2010 to 2015,Nanning’s overall carbon storage decreased by 0.87 Tg.Under the natural trend scenario and economic development scenario from 2015 to 2030,the overall carbon storage decreased by 4.33 Tg and 12.01 Tg,respectively.Under the ecological protection scenario,the overall carbon storage increased by 8.39 Tg.For different functional zone,from2015 to 2030,under natural trend scenario carbon storage in key development zone will decrease,and carbon storage in agricultural production zone and key ecological function zone will increase.Under the economic development scenario,carbon zone in three different functional zones will decrease.Under the ecological protection scenario,carbon storage in all three functional zones will increase.(5)The MFOZ planning through the implementation of differentiated development policies to control the development and utilization of different functional zones of the intensity of the mechanism,resulting in large differences in carbon storage changes in these zones.The conversion of large amounts of forest and cultivated land with high carbon density into construction land with low carbon density is the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage.