Residents’ Perception Of The Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources And Natural Disasters In The Yarlung Zangbo River Basin

Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the amplifier and driver of global climate change,which is sensitive to climate change and its response to climate change.Due to the change of climate,water resources and natural disasters have also occurred on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,threatening the production and life of the local people.In this paper,the participatory rural assessment method and SOR(stimulus response theory)theory are adopted to investigate the positive and negative impacts of climate change on water resources and natural disasters among residents in the Brahmaputra River Basin,so as to help residents take effective adaptation measures.This study reflects the overall and local impacts of climate change in the Brahmaputra River basin,which is conducive to the overall understanding and law of climate change in the Brahmaputra River basin.The results show that:(1)In the lower reaches of Yajiang River(Motuo County),it is found that from low altitude to high altitude,the residents who think that the impact of climate change is mainly negative(formerly good climate)show an increasing trend,accounting for 11%,14%,21% and 17% respectively,while the residents who think that the impact of climate change is mainly positive(now good climate)show a decreasing trend,with 50%,67%,33% and 42%,respectively.In the lower reaches of Yajiang River,low-altitude residents believe that the decrease of annual precipitation,the increase of sunny days,and the increase of sunshine time are conducive to the growth of crops,and the decrease of debris flow disasters is conducive to residents going out to work,which has a positive impact on the life of low-altitude residents.However,most residents at high altitudes believe that the increase of crop pests leads to the decrease of crop harvest.The percentage of high-altitude regions that think climate change will have a positive impact has decreased.(2)In the middle reaches of Yajiang River(Nedong County,Zhanang County and Cuomei County),from low altitude to high altitude,29%,52%,47% and 59%of residents think that climate change is mainly negative.The percentage of residents who think the impact of climate change is mainly positive is generally declining,with 34%,29%,22% and 28% respectively.In the middle reaches of the Yajiang River,residents in high-altitude areas believe that the decrease of precipitation leads to the increase of grassland drought disasters,the agricultural production is seriously affected by arid climate events,the harsh environment is not conducive to livestock production,and climate change brings negative impacts to residents in high-altitude areas,while most residents in low-altitude areas believe that the number of diseases and pests is increasing,but it is controllable under the current technical conditions.So the proportion of people living at lower elevations who think climate change will have a negative impact has fallen.(3)In the upper reaches of Yajiang River(Lazi County,Angren County and Saga County),from low altitude to high altitude,16%,17%,29% and 29% of residents believed that the impact of climate change was mainly negative.Those who think the impact of climate change is mostly positive are generally on the decline,at 53%,34%,15% and 21%,respectively.In the upper reaches of the Yajiang River,residents in high-altitude areas believe that the decrease of annual precipitation leads to severe drought in high-altitude areas and the decline of grassland yield.Climate change has brought negative impacts to residents in high-altitude areas,and the problem of increasing diseases and insect pests in low-altitude areas can be solved by using current technologies.Therefore,the proportion of residents in low-altitude areas who believe that climate change brings negative impacts decreases.(4)The Brahmaputra River is located in the south slope of the Himalayas for the lower reaches of the Yajiang River Motuo.From the analysis of the overall pattern,the proportion of residents with good climate is 50.9%,and the proportion of residents with good climate is 15.2%.Most residents of the southern slope of Himalaya(Motuo,lower reaches of Yajiang River)believe that the current climate is good for the reduction of rainfall,the decrease of cloud cover leads to the increase of the number of sunny days in the basin,resulting in sufficient light time,which is conducive to crop growth.On the other hand,after 2008,the government restricted the burning of land,the reduction of condensation nucleus(smoke)in the air,vegetation recovery and precipitation reduction lead to the reduction of debris flow disasters.(5)The Brahmaputra River is located on the north slope of the Himalaya River,including the lower reaches of the Yajiang River,the middle reaches of the Yajiang River and the upper reaches of the Yajiang River.From the overall pattern analysis,from low altitude to high altitude,the proportion of residents who think the impact of climate change is negative is 61.1%,38.2% and 20.7%.Meanwhile,19.5 %,32.6 % and 33.8 % of residents said climate change has a positive impact.Therefore,the positive impact of climate change is on the rise,while the negative impact is on the decline.With the rise of global temperature,the low altitude area of the Northern Slope of the Himalaya River(the tributaries of the lower reaches of the Yajiang River,the middle reaches of the Yajiang River and the upper reaches of the Yajiang River)has a high temperature.Too high temperature will bring various adverse effects(such as unsuitable crop growth,increase of diseases and pests,etc.),while the high altitude area itself has a low temperature,and the temperature rise will reduce the harm of low temperature and enhance the comfort level of the environment.It has a positive impact on the lives of residents in high altitude areas.