Network Assessment Of Scientific And Technology Capabilities Based On Open Source Information

Science and technology capability is the core competitiveness of national/regional development.A timely and accurate assessment of the current situation and changes in the science and technology capability of the countries can provide extremely important decision support for national/regional science and technology development,strategic layout and global competition.With the increasing cooperation and competition among global countries/regions in the field of science and technology,activities,such as national/regional alliances and confrontations,and transnational mobility of researchers,make countries around the world form a tightly networked system.Therefore,based on online open-source information and big data,it is of great theoretical significance and extensive practical value to conduct remote assessment studies of national/regional science and technology capabilities using network science.This paper focuses on national/regional science and technology capability assessment from the perspective of global researchers’ mobility,based on network science theory and methodology,and establishes a mathematical model covering the whole sequential process of "motivation analysis-capability assessment-risk prediction".The work of this paper includes the following three aspects.First,for the problem of national research motivation analysis,an incentive-inhibiting network model for research motivation analysis is proposed.Based on the theory of social influence network,the model models the incentive and inhibition mechanisms and joint roles among countries/regions affecting the motivation of scientific research,designs a method for constructing national/regional alliance networks and hostile networks,establishes an iterative calculation method for scientific research motivation.By using science and technology fields such as integrated circuit and artificial intelligence as experimental cases,it is verified that the model can effectively reflect the evolutionary trends of research motivation in major countries/regions.Second,for the national science and technology capability assessment problem,a model of science and technology capability assessment based on researchers’ transfer network is proposed.The model firstly designs a researchers’ transfer network calculation method to construct a researchers’ transfer network extracted from open source literature information.Further,a national role evolution assessment model is designed to classify the national/regional role evolution model based on the researchers’transfer network centrality metric in two dimensions of capability persistence and capability change.By using science and technology fields such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence as experimental cases,it is verified that the model can reveal the characteristics and trends of the evolution of science and technology capability roles in maj or countries/regions.Third,for the problem of national science and technology risk prediction,a model of science and technology risk prediction based on risk matrix calculation is proposed.The model takes research motivation and science and technology capability as influencing factors,calculates the science and technology risk series.Further,the clustering analysis of the risk series of each country/region can be used to obtain the clusters of country/region classes with similar patterns of science and technology risk evolution.By using science and technology fields such as integrated circuits and artificial intelligence as experimental cases,it is verified that the model can classify countries based on the science and technology risk sequences and achieve the ability to predict the science and technology risks of countries/regions.