Modeling Analysis Of Interprovincial Transmission Of Measles In Chin

Measles is a legally reported infectious disease in China,with extremely high infectivity.After the introduction and use of measles vaccine in China,the coverage rate of measles vaccine and the level of antibody among the population in China have continued to increase,but measles has not been eradicated in China.At present,research on measles in China mainly focuses on epidemiology,serology,and other fields.In foreign measles research,population mobility and seasonal transmission rates have a significant impact on the incidence of measles.Despite the high measles immunization rate in China,measles continues to spread throughout the country.This article will analyze the transmission dynamics of measles in some provinces of China from the perspectives of the impact of seasonal changes in floating population and transmission rates on the spread of measles in China.This article uses the method of infectious disease dynamics modeling to establish a SIR model that considers the floating population and the seasonality of infectious diseases,and divides the population into two parts: the intra provincial population and the non provincial inflow population.The spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to study the spatial correlation between measles incidence and incidence rate.We first estimated the seasonality of measles transmission rates in Henan and Guangdong provinces,and established corresponding transmission rate models based on the estimated results of the seasonality of measles transmission rates.This article uses a SIR model that considers the seasonality of floating populations and infectious diseases to estimate the infection rates of local populations and influx populations from outside the province.Finally,we analyzed the different effects of floating population and seasonal transmission rates on measles incidence by controlling for different variables.The research results found that: 1)The impact of the influx of people from outside the province on the dynamics of measles transmission in Henan Province is greater than the impact of local population mobility.The influx of infected individuals from the external population is an important factor affecting the spread of measles.In Guangdong,the infection rate of the local population is higher than that of the external inflow population.The dynamics of measles in Guangdong are more likely to affect surrounding or further areas.In some provinces of China,the spread of measles may be affected by the spread of measles in other regions,possibly due to population mobility.2)In the hot areas of Henan and Guangdong provinces,where the spatial correlation of measles incidence is relatively high,the seasonal variation of floating population and transmission rate plays an important role in the dynamics of measles transmission in the two provinces.The two work together during the Spring Festival,resulting in an annual cycle of measles incidence in China.3)The seasonal variation of floating population and transmission rate plays different roles in the transmission mechanism of measles.The seasonal variation of transmission rate causes the peak of measles incidence at a fixed time,while the floating population and imported cases determine the size of the peak of measles incidence.Through the above research,this article describes the role of mobile population in the transmission of measles in various provinces,as well as the impact of mobile population and seasonal transmission rates on the transmission of measles in some provinces of China.Provide theoretical guidance for the prevention and control of measles and infectious diseases with similar transmission characteristics.