Research On The Development Path Of Renewable Energy Based On Carbon Trading And Green Certificate Trading

With the rapid development of the global economy,traditional fossil energy has become increasingly exhausted,and the greenhouse effect has become more and more serious.New energy has attracted widespread attention from various countries due to its cleanliness and renewability.Promoting the transformation of energy structure,improving the position of clean energy in the energy market,and reducing the use of fossil fuels has become a global consensus.In order to achieve the goal of carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 in high quality,China is actively promoting the implementation of carbon cap-and-trade mechanisms(CAP)and renewable portfolio standards(RPS).With the deepening implementation of these two policies,auxiliary mechanisms such as the carbon trading market and the green certificate trading market have also been derived accordingly.The focus of this study is on the impact of carbon trading and green certificate trading on the development of renewable energy electricity in China’s electricity market,as well as the promotion of grid parity for photovoltaic power generation.Based on the above background,this article firstly designs four policy scenarios:no-policy scenario,carbon trading scenario,green certificate trading scenario and mixed scenario that considers both carbon trading and green certificate trading.Subsequently,optimization models were constructed with the goal of maximizing profits for power companies under different scenarios,further exploring the impact of various policy factors on energy investment decisions,total carbon emissions,consumer surplus,and social welfare levels of power companies when conventional energy,new conventional energy,and renewable energy coexist in the electricity market.The research results indicate that when carbon trading mechanism and green certificate trading mechanism are implemented simultaneously,the promotion effect of renewable energy investment is the best.The results of this article also indicate that in the early stages of China’s low-carbon transformation,the social welfare level of the electricity market under the mixed policy scenario is the highest.However,if the government wants to maintain a high level of social welfare while opening the carbon trading market and the green certificate trading market,it should reduce the cost of non-fossil energy power generation,thereby encouraging power companies’ large investment in renewable energy power.With the deepening of carbon trading and green certificate trading,China’s photovoltaic industry is about to enter the “the era of parity”.This article introduces the costs of participating in the carbon market and green certificate market on the general cost models of coal and photovoltaic power generation,and establishes a photovoltaic power grid parity system based on renewable energy support mechanisms.Then,a sensitivity analysis was conducted on the key factors affecting the parity of photovoltaic power grids,discussing the impact of policy and technical factors on the degree of realization of photovoltaic power grid parity.Finally,on the basis of the abovementioned photovoltaic grid parity system,the implementation of photovoltaic grid parity nationwide during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period was further predicted.The results indicate that the simultaneous implementation of the carbon trading market and the green certificate trading market has a significant effect on promoting the parity of photovoltaic power grids.It was also found that improving the initial investment cost of photovoltaic equipment and the learning rate of power generation technology can significantly reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation.The results of this article also indicate that by the end of the “14th Five-Year Plan” period,except for the Chongqing region,photovoltaic grid parity can be achieved nationwide,but there are significant differences in the degree of implementation among different regions.Based on the carbon trading market and green certificate trading market,this article studies the decision-making behavior of power companies in the market environment and the implementation of photovoltaic grid parity.The research results can provide some scientific conclusions and policy recommendations on promoting high-quality development of renewable energy and accelerating the parity of photovoltaic power grids,which can help improve and develop China’s renewable energy policies.