Research On Bond Default Based On Statistics And KMV Model

Since the " 11 Chaori debts" substantially violated the contract in 2014,the rigid redemption of the bond market was broken.After that,in 2016,the country carried out macroeconomic "supply-side reform" and implemented the policy of "deleveraging and strong supervision",which led to the frequent occurrence of bond defaults.In recent years,the scale of defaulted bonds has grown rapidly,and it shows the characteristics of spreading to high credit rating,state-owned enterprises and multi-industries.Defaulted bonds are faced with such problems as long disposal cycle,low repayment rate and imperfect secondary trading mechanism.In many industries,with the support of the parent company,financial leasing companies have strong anti-risk ability.Generally,only small and medium-sized financial leasing companies with poor risk control ability will be greatly affected by the external environment and may face the situation of market clearing in the future.Although Bohai Leasing is a subsidiary of Hainan Airlines Group with a large scale,it also repeatedly declared bond default in 2022.In order to study the bond default problem of Bohai Leasing,this paper is based on the leasing and business service industry,first of all,related bond default theory and research were sorted out.Then,the Z-Score model and KMV model are modified by using the data of listed companies in leasing and business service industry to make the risk measurement of Bohai leasing more accurate.Then from the Bohai leasing development and default process and other aspects of the analysis,and from the external,internal and other factors to explore the causes of bond default;Finally,the financial situation and default distance are tested empirically by two modified models to analyze the reasons for default.Through the case study and analysis of leasing and business service industry,the enlightenment is as follows:(1)Aircraft leasing and container leasing are greatly affected by the development of macroeconomic industry,should optimize the industry model as soon as possible;(2)Leasing companies should establish diversified and threedimensional financing channels;(3)The risk discrimination ability of leasing companies should be improved and the prevention of liquidity risks should be strengthened.