Study On The Risk Agent Simulation Model Of COVID-19 Epidemic Coupled With Individual Epidemiological Factors And Macro-intervention Behavior

Since the COVID-19 outbreak was detected and reported in late 2019,the pandemic continues throughout the world,with public health authorities and the general public in countries struggling to balance safe and normal travel activities.However,the complexity of the public health environment and human behavior,as well as the ongoing mutation of the COVID-19 virus,make higher demands for the development of theoretical and simulation tools and activities at all levels of simulated society.The agent-based model can provide a highly accurate representation of time and space at the individual level.The agent-based model considers the geographical location of various types of buildings and the geographical location of the agent itself,and analyzes the local human behavior trends and local population movement patterns from the unique characteristics of the community.This paper proposes an agent-based modeling model,which constructs a realistic geographical environment of Shanghai Huangpu District and Shanghai Changning District according to the building statistical data of Shanghai Huangpu District and Shanghai Changning District,and restores the realistic population data of Shanghai Huangpu District and Shanghai Changning District according to the 7th population census data of China.After incorporating the detailed elements of COVID-19 transmission and the real data from WHO to form various parameters affecting the transmission of COVID-19,the model was verified according to the COVID-19 data officially reported,and the model was applied in hypothetical scenarios.In addition to routine population movement,detection,treatment and other related functions,the burden of nucleic acid detection in the model was also considered for diseases similar to COVID-19,such as seasonal cold.Shanghai is one of the most severely affected places,and Huangpu District is the "heart,window and business card" of Shanghai.Its importance to Shanghai is self-evident.Therefore,this study firstly simulated the spread of COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai Huangpu District with one-to-one population modeling,and verified the model with real data of Shanghai Huangpu District.Thus proving the usability of the model.On this basis,the simulation of COVID-19 epidemic in Changning district was added to prove the scalability of the model.Model verification results show that we have built a COVID-19 agent risk assessment system suitable for individual epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in China,and explored universal means of intervention and control of COVID-19.To provide scientific theoretical basis and information decision-making tools for effective COVID-19 prevention and control and public health intervention in China.