| Faced with the increasingly severe global climate problem,governments and other scientific organizations are constantly seeking solutions to improve the human living environment.China has proposed a major strategy of carbon peak and neutrality,and increasing carbon sinks is an important way to achieve this strategic goal.Land vegetation,as an important component of terrestrial ecosystems,has a powerful carbon sequestration function.Therefore,fully exploring the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial vegetation and improving emission reduction and sink enhancement benefits has become an important development trend in the current ecology.According to the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of carbon sequestration of land vegetation,this paper discusses the carbon sequestration of land vegetation in China and its response to climate factors,human activities,regional economic development,regional industrialization and urbanization rate,and simulates and predicts the change law of carbon sequestration of land vegetation in China in the future based on the grey prediction method of metabolism principle,The carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial vegetation in China and its environmental effects were evaluated.The main research contents and conclusions of the paper are as follows:First of all,the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon sequestration of China’s land vegetation is analyzed.In terms of time dimension,the carbon sequestration of China’s land vegetation showed an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2017.The results of the nuclear density estimation also showed that the carbon sequestration of China’s land vegetation increased steadily,and the regional differences showed a trend of “expansion-reduction –expansion”,which is changing from polarization to multi-polarization,and has different development levels and efficiency differences in different periods Evolution characteristics of polarization degree.From the perspective of space,the carbon sequestration of land vegetation is unevenly distributed among regions,presenting a distribution pattern of "high in the periphery and low in the middle",but the spatial distribution difference of prefecturelevel cities will gradually narrow over time.On the whole,the spatial agglomeration and overall distribution fluctuation of carbon sequestration of vegetation in most cities remain relatively stable.The results of spatial correlation analysis show that there is significant spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity in the carbon sequestration of vegetation in China’s municipal units,and there is also significant spatial dependence in some parts.The vast majority of cities are in the “high-high” and “low-low” state,and over time,cities gradually shift from “low-low” agglomeration to “high-high” agglomeration.Secondly,the spatial Durbin model was used to analyze a number of factors affecting the carbon sequestration of terrestrial vegetation.The results showed that the urbanization rate and rainfall were not significant,and the other variables were significant.Among them,the intensity of human activities and the average annual temperature reduce the carbon sequestration of land vegetation in the region by reducing the amount of standing trees in the local land vegetation and affecting the carbon absorption of vegetation,but the regional economic situation,the degree of industrialization and the length of sunshine positively affect the carbon sequestration of land vegetation.At the same time,the results of spatial effect decomposition show that the duration of sunshine has a positive impact on the carbon sequestration of terrestrial vegetation in the region by improving the photosynthesis of vegetation,and the level of regional economic development has a positive impact on the carbon sequestration of vegetation in the region and adjacent areas by promoting green technology progress and developing clean energy to replace traditional energy.The increase of human activity intensity will reduce the carbon sequestration of terrestrial vegetation in the region and adjacent areas,The development of regional industrialization can increase the amount of carbon sequestration of terrestrial vegetation in the region,but it will weaken the amount of carbon sequestration of terrestrial vegetation in adjacent regions.Relevant tests show that the conclusion is robust.Finally,an improved grey prediction model for carbon sequestration of terrestrial vegetation in China was built,and smooth data of terrestrial vegetation growth was generated based on the original data modeling,and then the metabolic model was used for prediction.Each round of prediction eliminated one old data and added new data to achieve the purpose of rolling prediction of the data.Relevant tests showed that the prediction results of the model were good.On the whole,the amount of carbon sequestration of China’s land vegetation fluctuates and rises,maintaining a stable growth in 2023 and beyond,and may exceed 16 million tons in 2060.According to this trend,a large part of the carbon dioxide capacity in the atmosphere will be absorbed by the land vegetation in the future,which is conducive to China’s early realization of the goals of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality",helping to mitigate global warming and improve carbon cycle efficiency.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward the following suggestions for improving the carbon sequestration of terrestrial vegetation in China:(1)It should separate human activity space from natural space.(2)It’s better to adhere to human development on the premise of protecting the carbon cycle of the ecosystem,and strengthen ecological protection.(3)The government should increase the investment in research and development of green environmental protection technology and maintain regional economic balance.(4)The enterprises should accelerate the green transformation,upgrading and reduce traditional energy consumption. |
