| Avian Influenza(AI)is a severe infectious disease that is prevalent in poultry,including the mass migration of wild waterfowl.Poyang Lake,which is located on the East Asia-Australia waterbird migration route,is known as a "migratory bird paradise",and the presence of wild waterfowl in the area increases the possibility of avian influenza virus transmission.Poyang Lake region also has developed agriculture and poultry industry,providing the same food source for poultry and wild waterfowl,resulting in frequent contact with them,creating more opportunities for cross-species transmission of avian influenza virus.Poyang Lake region has also become a high risk area for avian influenza virus transmission and outbreaks.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the transmission risk of avian influenza virus in Poyang Lake.In this study,the water body of Poyang Lake and the waterfront area of Poyang Lake were taken as the time node from 2018 to 2020,and the spatial distribution and change characteristics of domestic duck breeding were obtained by visual interpretation using high-resolution images of Google Earth during the same period,and the distribution and change characteristics of paddy field were extracted by supervised classification.And applied to the Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve Administration to obtain waterbird data.The data of domestic ducks,paddy fields and waterfowl in the study area were superposed and analyzed to construct the "domestic duck-waterfowl ecological interaction area in Poyang Lake region",so as to assess the risk of avian influenza virus transmission in Poyang Lake region.The establishment of this model can provide important reference for the development law of avian influenza,as well as the prevention and control of avian influenza,the protection of wild waterfowl and even the early warning of avian influenza outbreak in poultry.Main research results:(1)From 2018 to 2020,the total breeding area of domestic ducks in the study area was 5.61km2,and the maximum active area was 254.71km~2.The distribution of domestic duck breeding sites in Nanchang County,Jinxian County and Xinjian District showed higher aggregation than other regions.The breeding sites of domestic ducks moved southward on the whole,the standard distance increased to 75.09 km,and the hot spots of breeding sites were more concentrated,showing a general trend of gathering towards the south of Nanchang County.(2)The paddy field area of each region in the study area remained relatively stable,and the average center of paddy field changed,moving to the south and west as a whole.Paddy field area decreased in Gongqing City,Duchang County,Nanchang County,Lushan City,Poyang County,Yugan County and Yongxiu County.(3)The number of waterfowl prone to carrying highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve and Duchang County waterfowl survey area showed negative growth;(4)In 2018,the primary and secondary risk breeding sites were mainly distributed in the north of Nanchang County and the northeast of the newly established area,while the tertiary risk breeding sites were mainly distributed in the whole area of Nanchang County(mainly concentrated in the south of Nanchang County)and the northeast of the newly established area.In 2020,the breeding sites of first-level risk domestic ducks became less and had no concentration sites,the breeding sites of second-level risk domestic ducks were mainly located in the north of Nanchang County and the northeast of Xinjian District,and the breeding sites of third-level domestic ducks were still distributed in the whole area of Nanchang County(mainly concentrated in the south of Nanchang County)and the northeast of Xinjian District.Therefore,the transmission of avian influenza virus in Xinchang County and Nanchang County should be monitored. |
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