Non-Stationary Temporal Correlations In The Complex Climate System And Their Applications

In recent years,the global climate change and the increase of extreme weather have led to an increasing interest in the complex climate system.Theories and methods from physics,mathematics,and computer science are essential in the study of the complex climate system,some of these disciplines have been applied to meteorological and air quality studies with good results.However,among the existing studies on the complex climate system,there are not many studies on a relatively novel temporal correlation,which is the correlation between the past dynamical fluctuations and the values of future dynamical variables in complex systems.Therefore,this paper applies this correlation to the study of the complex climate system in a relevant way.In the beginning of this paper,the relevant research background and research status are firstly introduced,the significance of this paper is also given;then the theoretical methods needed in the study are described,and finally the data sources and relevant data processing methods are given.In the research process,some indicators in the complex climate system are taken as research objects to discuss the results of the above-mentioned correlation under both stationary states and non-stationary states preconditions.When the complex climate system is assumed to be in the stationary state,the dynamic fluctuations of some indicators have strong autocorrelation,but the correlations between the dynamic fluctuations and the dynamic variables of some indicators are weak or even nonexistent;however,if the dynamic effects of the non-stationary states are considered in the study,there is a certain temporal correlation between the dynamic fluctuations and the dynamic variables.After obtaining this result,we also verify the scientific validity of the computational method and the rationality of the missing data treatment method in terms of application.In this paper,we also analyze the results in more depth: firstly,the main factors of the correlation are discussed and it is found that “the small fluctuation”is the main component of the fluctuation-variation correlation,we also find that this correlation is stable over time scales;then,we discuss the nature of some climate indicators at non-local time scales with the help of the “the persistence probability” and find that the fluctuations of these indicators do have some long-range correlations at non-local time scales;finally,we make some improvements to the method,so as to obtain more reasonable and realistic results.After completing the above-mentioned research,the work of this paper is summarized and an outlook on possible future research is given.The research in this paper may be useful for the analysis and prediction of climate.This paper may provide some theoretical support for the prediction of some climate indicators,provide more insights into the mechanism behind climate change,and provide experience for calculating the temporal correlation functions affected by non-stationary states in more complex systems.